818
FXUS63 KEAX 130721
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
221 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms have moved into the area and will
continue through Monday. Rainfall amounts as high as high as 2
inches will be possible leading to minor flooding concerns.

-Dry weather and near normal temperatures expected for the middle of
next week.

-Additional showers and thunderstorms expected for the second half
of next week.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity has move over the area
overnight as a shortwave trough track east through our forecast
area. Generally expect this activity to continue through much of the
day, and gradually ending from west to east Monday night. Severe
weather still looks unlikely with unsupportive CAPE and shear
profiles. PWAT values across the area will range from about 1 - 1.5
inches. Generally not expecting significant impacts from this event,
but its long duration combined with potential brief period for heavier
downpours could lead to some minor flooding for the rivers. Outside
of rain chances, temperatures on Monday briefly return to below
normal with highs reaching the upper 60s to low 70s.

Dry conditions are expected to return by Tuesday morning as the wave
pushes east of the forecast area. Short lived ridging will shift
overhead allowing for the return of light southerly flow and
temperatures returning to near normal for the middle part of the
work week. Highs will be in the mid 70s for most on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

By Wednesday evening our focus will shift to another disturbance
shifting toward the forecast area. Shower and thunderstorm activity
will again be possible beginning Wednesday night with potential for
activity continuing into Thursday night. Severe weather again looks
unlikely with this system, however it may bring additional potential
for rainfall amounts over an inch. This could lead to additional or
prolonged river flooding.

After this system moves out of the area on Friday, dry weather will
return for the weekend as ridging sets up over the forecast area
once again. Southerly flow on both Saturday and Sunday will help
push the temperature back to above normal with highs reaching the
lower to mid 80s across the forecast area. &&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

A messy TAF period is expected for Monday with on and off
rainfall and thunderstorms expected through the period.
Additionally, ceilings are expected to gradually diminish to IFR
by late Monday morning. Some improvement to MVFR can be
expected by the afternoon. Rainfall gradually expected to come
to an end Monday night.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HB
AVIATION...HB