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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 140920
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
320 AM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 316 AM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Warm and breezy weather will continue for today. On Monday, a
potent storm system will bring strong winds, high to extreme fire
danger, and areas of blowing dust. We resume a warm and breezy
regime through the remainder of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Overall, no changes from the previous forecast package with
continued concern for the high impact storm system that will move
across the region on Monday.

Before we get to Monday, upper level ridging will progress eastward
as the next system comes on shore over California. SWerly flow aloft
will increase over the region in response to the approaching system.
Breezy winds and warm temperatures can be expected through Sunday.

By Monday, the aforementioned potent upper level system will
swing across NV, UT, and eventually CO through the Monday
timeframe. This trajectory will place a 110+ knot jet right over
central and southern NM by the afternoon hours. At the surface,
strong lee-side surface cyclogenesis will form a sub-990mb surface
low over NE CO with a corresponding surface extending across CO
and NM. The accompanying Pacific front will further packing the
surface pressure gradient across southern NM as well. Given the
synoptic setup of this event, along with max daytime heating and
mixing up to 600mb, all the ingredients are coming together for a
fairly impactful wind event. Looking NBM 75th percentile for wind
gusts, most of the forecast area, especially along and east of the
Continental Divide show greater than 50 knots. Hence the issuance
of the High Wind Warning, with the less typically windy areas
within the CWA under a Windy Advisory. Within the Advisory areas,
wind gusts of 50-55 mph will be likely, while the High Wind
Warning areas will see gusts of 60-70 mph. The highest gusts will
be in the mountains of the Sacs and Black Range, along with areas
along the eastern slopes of the San Andreas Mtns, Organ Mtns,
Franklin Mtns, and other desert lowland sky islands. With the
strong winds, blowing dust will be likely, especially given how
dry it`s been recently and drought status across the region. Also,
with minimum relative humidity values in the low teens to single
digits, fire danger will be high to extreme with a Red Flag
Warning in effect. Any outdoor burning is not advised.

Northwesterly to quasi-zonal flow will settle in across the region
after Monday`s system departs. This will keep us warm, breezy, and
very dry each afternoon. Towards the end of the work week, models
are hinting at a backdoor cold front intruding from the east.
Guidance continues to struggle with how far west this slightly
cooler and more moist airmass will progress. As I just mentioned,
this airmass does have increased moisture associated with it. As of
now, very little/low end chances of rain exists on Saturday and
Sunday for eastern Otero and Hudspeth Counties. Again, it will
depend on how far this airmass can progress westward as it may
struggle making it`s way past the central mountain chain of NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with SKC-FEW250...with
increasing SCT200 BKN250 after 18Z. Surface winds west AOB 8
knots. Winds increasing again after 18Z to southwest 13-18G28
knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 AM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Sunday`s weather will promote Elevated fire weather conditions
across the area. Southwesterly flow aloft will increase ahead of the
next storm system as is presently sits just off the coast of
California. Temperatures this afternoon will be 2-5 degrees above
the seasonal average with corresponding Min RH values between 6-15
percent areawide. Surface and near-surface winds will be breezy out
of the southwest at 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Snowpack over
the high terrain continues to dwindle with 10-hour and 100-hour
fuels drying out fairly quick. ERC values continue to trend up,
especially across the southern and southwestern NM desert lowlands
and areas within the Sacramento Mtns and surrounding foothills.

Monday is the kicker, as the aforementioned potent storm system
moves across the Four Corners and Central Rockies vicinity. The
trajectory is key, because it passes too far north to provide our
area any moisture or precipitation. However, as it traverses west
to east, it with pass with perfect timing and positioning to
maximize and promote strong winds on Monday. The synoptic
ingredients that will be present, in combination with
strengthening lee-side cyclogenesis and the presence of a well-
mixed environment, will promote strong winds. Southwest winds of
30-40 plus, with gusts of 50-70 mph can be expected, along with
Min RH values of 5-15 percent across most of the area (Gila region
15-20% RH values). A RED FLAG WARNING will be in effect for
Monday for all fire weather zones excluding NMZ110. This event
looks to be a high-end RFW with conditions CRITICAL to EXTREME.

Storm system quickly exits on Tuesday, with dry northwesterly to
quasi-zonal flow in it`s wake for the remainder of the work week.
This will keep the region warm, dry, and breezy each afternoon;
keeping fire weather conditions Elevated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  87  62  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            82  59  85  44 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               86  54  82  44 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               82  54  79  42 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               58  43  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    82  49  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              72  42  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   83  47  77  41 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                80  44  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       84  61  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                86  53  86  43 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             88  59  90  45 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               77  57  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   86  60  87  46 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             82  56  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           83  59  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            82  52  77  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    84  51  78  40 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 84  52  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                81  54  80  41 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  74  49  69  40 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                70  48  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 69  45  66  34 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  75  43  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                80  46  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                81  47  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             73  39  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   76  41  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    79  44  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               74  42  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  76  44  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   81  45  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  82  47  76  40 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           82  47  77  38 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               75  45  71  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM MDT Monday for TXZ419>421.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM MDT Monday for TXZ418-422>424.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Monday for TXZ055-056.

NM...High Wind Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM MDT Monday for NMZ403-
     406>411-414>417-425>427.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM MDT Monday for NMZ401-404-405-
     428-429.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Monday for NMZ111>113.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers