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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 090913
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
313 AM MDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Passing upper-level system will bring the area a slight chance for
showers. The Sacramento Mountains have the best chance at any
precipitation with 2-4 inches of snow possible above 7500`. It
will be warm to very warm starting Wednesday. Breezy conditions
return Friday, lasting into the weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Apr 9 2024

UL low responsible for today`s weather is spinning over NE Sonora
as of 3AM. It is expected to track east across Northern Chihuahua
this morning and then into TX by mid-day. This places our CWA
within a region of favorable wrap-around dynamics this afternoon
especially as about 0.5" PW moisture gets entrained into the
system. POPs essentially increase southwest to northeast with
highest chances for precip across the Sacs where favorable upslope
dynamics will enhance precipitation. For the lowlands, most
locations will see less than 0.10" of precip, and that depends on
where the western edge of the wrap-around extends. For the Sacs,
50th-70th percentile shows 0.25-0.50" pretty common. The main
uncertainty is how much of that liquid falls as snow and can
stick. If all of that falls as snow, especially if we see the 90th
percentile (QPF) verify, then snow totals could be pretty
impressive at 4-8". Looking at the snow parameter specifically in
the NBM, it looks like the deterministic value is around the 90th
percentile (snowfall), which shows 2-4", so it is figuring some
of that liquid will fall as rain. All that to say, we have 2-4" in
the grids above 7500`, and for that reason a winter weather
advisory was issued by the evening shift. Definitely a difficult
forecast though as pattern (favorable upslope) suggests totals
will be on the high side, but near to just above-freezing
temperatures could pull totals down. If you live in the Sacs or
plan on heading up there, keep a close eye on the forecast.
Regardless, of precip, it will be cooler for today as this system
drags in some cooler air from the north.

That UL low clears the area by late evening with a ridge expected
to build in its place. Temperatures will rebound to near normal on
Wednesday and then much above normal to finish out the week. NBM
shows a 50% chance of El Paso seeing its first 90 deg day of the
year on Friday, which would also tie the record. Winds will start
off relatively light (10-15 MPH) for Wednesday and Thursday. A
passing s/w to our west and northwest will bring winds up for
Friday (15-20 MPH) range. On Saturday the subtropical jet begins
to undercut the ridge ahead of a closed low projected to be off
the West Coast. This keeps us breezy for the weekend. Finally, to
finish out the period on Monday, the aforementioned UL trough
kicks out to our north, while weakening. Present NBM probs show
advisory levels wind gusts probabilities mainly below 10% though
higher for east slope areas (40-50%) and the Sacs (50-60%).

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 PM MDT Mon Apr 8 2024

Low pressure system tracking eastward along the International
Border overnight and passing through the El Paso area around sunrise
Tuesday morning. Precipitation limited to central and eastern New
Mexico Tuesday afternoon. Skies beginning SCT-BKN180, falling to FEW-
SCT140 the next few hours. Conditions expected to remain VMC at KELP
and nearby terminals on Tuesday with rain showers in the vicinity.
Best chance for lower CIGs will be at KTCS between 18-22Z with
nearby rain showers. Surface winds generally 240-280 at 05-10 knots
overnight, increasing as north winds arrive tomorrow afternoon to
330-010 at 15 to 20 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Apr 9 2024

No significant fire concerns for today as an UL system passes to
our south and southeast. It will bring a slight chance for rain in
the lowlands, but a very good chance (80-90%) of rain and snow to
the Sacramento mountains. Regardless of precip, an increase in
moisture and a decrease in temperature will keep min RH values in
the lowlands mainly in the 20s. Winds will be breezy within in
north-south valleys, generally around 15 MPH. Vent rates will
range southwest-to-northeast with excellent in the southwest to
fair in the Sacramento mountains.

Very dry air returns on Wednesday as temperatures climb to near
record levels by Friday. Winds will be fairly light on Wednesday
and Thursday (around 10 MPH) increasing to around 15 MPH on
Friday, leading to elevated fire concerns. Winds increase a little
more on Saturday and Sunday keeping elevated to near critical
conditions in place, but early look at Monday, shows critical
conditions may be met then for much of the lowlands and mountain
locations below 7500 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  67  45  78  50 /  30  10   0   0
Sierra Blanca            60  38  71  43 /  20  10   0   0
Las Cruces               67  40  78  47 /  30  10   0   0
Alamogordo               60  35  73  42 /  70  20   0   0
Cloudcroft               34  25  49  31 /  80  30   0   0
Truth or Consequences    60  39  74  45 /  60  10   0   0
Silver City              58  37  70  41 /  50  30   0   0
Deming                   65  37  77  42 /  30  10   0   0
Lordsburg                66  37  76  42 /  30  10   0   0
West El Paso Metro       65  43  76  49 /  30  10   0   0
Dell City                62  35  75  39 /  40  10   0   0
Fort Hancock             67  37  77  42 /  20  10   0   0
Loma Linda               57  37  69  44 /  40  10   0   0
Fabens                   67  40  77  44 /  20  10   0   0
Santa Teresa             64  37  75  43 /  20  10   0   0
White Sands HQ           62  43  75  49 /  40  10   0   0
Jornada Range            61  35  75  42 /  50  10   0   0
Hatch                    65  35  78  41 /  40  10   0   0
Columbus                 66  41  77  45 /  20  10   0   0
Orogrande                60  36  72  41 /  50  10   0   0
Mayhill                  46  31  62  34 /  80  40   0   0
Mescalero                44  30  61  34 /  90  40   0   0
Timberon                 48  28  60  33 /  70  20   0   0
Winston                  53  34  69  39 /  60  10   0   0
Hillsboro                59  36  74  43 /  50  10   0   0
Spaceport                60  33  74  40 /  60  10   0   0
Lake Roberts             58  31  71  35 /  60  20   0   0
Hurley                   60  34  73  39 /  40  30   0   0
Cliff                    66  37  78  42 /  30  30   0   0
Mule Creek               62  38  73  42 /  30  20   0   0
Faywood                  59  36  73  43 /  40  10   0   0
Animas                   67  39  76  43 /  10  10   0   0
Hachita                  65  38  76  43 /  20  10   0   0
Antelope Wells           67  38  76  44 /  10  10   0   0
Cloverdale               62  40  71  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this
     evening for NMZ415.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown