Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 261822
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
122 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Tomorrow/

In contrast to the past few days, temperatures this morning were
as much as 5 to 15 degrees below seasonable values with near
freezing temperatures in a few spots across the northwest and wind
chill values bottoming out in the 20s primarily in North Texas.
Despite minimal reductions in solar insolation today, temperatures
will likely struggle to warm beyond the lower 60s in most areas,
as dry north-northwest winds occasionally gusting to 15 to 20 mph
sustain cold air advection in the wake of the recent front. With a
deep upper-level trough stretching from the Rockies to the
Appalachians and passing surface high pressure overhead, the cool
air mass in place will have little impetus to modify through much
of this period.

Area forecast soundings indicate an increase in mid and high
level cloud cover will occur early Wednesday as a weak shortwave
rounding the base of the parent trough reaches the Panhandle.
Though surface winds will become light and veer from the northwest
to east-northeast overnight, radiational cooling will likely be
tempered by this veil of clouds. For this reason, the forecast
minimum temperatures have been raised slightly above the
deterministic NBM, particularly in areas near and south of the
I-20 corridor. Morning low temperatures will range from the upper
30s in the vicinity of the Red River Valley to the low 40s across
much of Central Texas.

The embedded shortwave trough will also introduce the question of
convection potential Wednesday afternoon, even though low-level
moisture is expected to remain rather limited. The primary
mitigating factors to consider include the increasing subsidence
on the western flank of the parent trough and the previously
mentioned lack of boundary-layer moisture. However,
destabilization may still occur amid increasing deep-layer ascent,
daytime heating, and modest remnant/returning moisture in the
lower levels beneath cooler temperatures aloft. By Wednesday
afternoon, isolated to widely scattered (high-based) showers and
thunderstorms may develop as a weak surface trough slowly shifts
east. If thunderstorms do develop, the environment may support
isolated strong to marginally severe storms. With a well-mixed
boundary layer to around 850 mb and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear,
these storms will primarily carry a large hail and damaging wind
gust threat.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 311 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/
Update:
/Late Week, Weekend, Into Early Next Week/

The previous long term discussion still looks representative with
dry, breezy and warm weather. This will be especially true as
temperatures this weekend and early next week will feel more like
late Spring versus early Spring. Lows in the 60s and highs well
into the 80s are anticipated this coming weekend, with even a few
readings topping 90 degrees on Monday and in advance of our next
strong system and cold front arriving next Monday night and
Tuesday.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion:
/Tuesday Night Onward/

By midweek, upper level troughing will be passing over the Central
Plains in response to ridging over the western CONUS. As the base
of the trough moves overtop North and Central Texas on Wednesday,
a shortwave disturbance moving through the backside of the
longwave trough will bring increased forcing for ascent in
conjunction with mid-level moisture and instability resulting in
isolated to scattered convection out near the Big Country. These
showers and storms will move eastward through the afternoon hours
eventually ending during the later evening. Most will remain dry
due to the scattered nature of the convection. Those that do see
precipitation will see low rainfall amounts due to low PWATs and
dry low-levels allowing for evaporation before reaching the
ground.

Forecast soundings show fairly steep lapse rates between 8-9 degrees
C/km, MUCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg, and deep layer shear > 30
kts. This parameter space would promote the potential for some
strong storms with a severe hail and wind threat. As of now, the
biggest question for this forecast issuance is whether or not the
lift will be sufficient for convection to develop within this
environment. Nonetheless, we`ll keep an eye on this potential over
the next couple days.

Behind the departing trough, upper level ridging will build in
across the Southern Plains. The subsident airmass, coupled with
southerly flow at the surface and low-levels, will promote a warming
trend over the late week and weekend. Expect afternoon highs to
reach the 70s to near 80 by Friday, and then peak in the 80s region-
wide by the end of the weekend. Warm air advection will ramp up
during this time as low-level/surface flow strengthens, sending
50s and 60s dewpoints into the region over the weekend.

Meanwhile, an upper low will transit south down the western CONUS
coastline, eventually swinging across the southern Desert Southwest
early next week. This will set the stage for our next storm system
and accompanying rain/storm chances. This is still just out of the
scope of the public forecast at this time, but will begin to be
included in the upcoming days.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR flight conditions should prevail through the current TAF
period. Occasionally gusty northwest winds will diminish to around
5 KT by 01Z. Overnight, winds will veer to the northeast and then
east as the surface high builds eastward, though sustained wind
speeds should remain light through daybreak. FEW to SCT mid to
high clouds (though still VFR) will also begin to spread across
the D10 overnight/early Wednesday morning (most likely after 06Z)
in response to an approaching weak upper level disturbance.

The main aviation concern will be the potential for isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon.
These storms may impact area terminals, however probabilities are
too low to introduce any mention of thunder with this issuance.
Isolated instances of marginally severe hail and gusty winds may
also accompany these storms. Winds will become more southerly by
or around 14Z with speeds increasing to around 8 to 12 KTS and
occasional higher gusts possible.

12

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    43  66  45  72  54 /   5  20  20   0   0
Waco                43  69  44  74  52 /   0  20  30   0   0
Paris               37  59  41  68  49 /   0  10  10   0   0
Denton              37  63  41  70  52 /   5  30  20   0   0
McKinney            38  62  42  69  52 /   0  20  10   0   0
Dallas              44  65  46  72  55 /   5  20  20   0   0
Terrell             40  64  43  70  52 /   0  20  20   0   0
Corsicana           44  67  46  72  53 /   5  10  30   0   0
Temple              43  70  44  74  52 /   5  30  20   0   0
Mineral Wells       39  68  41  71  52 /   5  30  20   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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