Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
138 FXUS62 KGSP 100735 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 335 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Another system will bring showers and thunder this afternoon, before dry high pressure builds in through the weekend. An active pattern will set in for the new workweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 315 AM: Widespread cirrus ahead of a thunderstorm complex to our SW will continue to move over the area this morning. This has not stopped the development of low stratus across much of the area. It should also limit fog to mainly the mountain valleys where the cirrus is thinner. Can`t rule out some patchy fog elsewhere though. Some stratocu will continue across the mountains where fog doesn`t form. A short wave will swing across the area from the NW today, after some weak short wave energy this morning. A low pressure center will move east along the slow moving cold front moving south across the area. This, along with lingering moisture, will create scattered convection over portions of the NC mountains and I-77 corridor, with isolated convection elsewhere. Instability is expected to develop during the afternoon, especially across the CLT Metro area where MUCAPE could reach 1000 J/kg. Weaker instability is expected elsewhere. Strong bulk shear develops in the Metro area as well. The instability and shear combined with the forcing could lead to isolated severe storms with damaging wind gusts and hail the main threats. Outside of storms, gusty gradient winds are also expected. Highs will be a little above normal. The convection should taper off quickly during the evening as drier air moves in and forcing moves east. Gusts will taper off outside of the mountains but linger across portions of the higher elevations. Skies clear with some mountain valley fog possible. Lows will be around 5 degrees below normal. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 302 AM EDT Friday: Expect a brief period of flattening uppper heights on Saturday, before another shortwave dives down into the Mid Atlantic Saturday night. Operational guidance depicts a swath of deep moisture associated with this feature, but it arrives slowly. Increasing cirrus from Saturday night onward...becoming overcast by late Sunday. Model profiles indicate enough subsidence to inhibit any thunder Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Temperatures will be 1-2 categories below normal on Saturday, rising to within a category of normal on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 312 AM EDT Friday: Typical late spring pattern resumes on Monday with a wavy upper pattern. The bulk of guidance has some flavor of a deep trough or closed upper low drifting out of the Ozarks late Monday and into Tuesday, ushering in better moisture. Instability looks anemic on Monday and Tuesday, but by Wednesday, the GFS and CMC both depict a plume of afternoon CAPE intersecting a well-sheared environment. Wednesday thus looks like it could perhaps be our next severe weather day. Temps will be near or just below normal Monday, falling to at least a category below normal on Tuesday. Things will warm back up on Wednesday and beyond. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Copious high clouds will remain over the area this morning. Some VFR stratocu will also be seen at KAVl and KHKY. IFR to LIFR stratus is developing despite the high clouds. Expect IFR to LIFR cigs for all but KHKY/KAVL, but they will be possible there as well. Any low cigs should scatter out or lift by noon. Guidance showing better chance of convection at KCLT than the rest of the sites, so have limited PROB30 to that location. W to SW wind this morning becomes gusty and more WSW for the afternoon. The gusty winds continue from the NW to N into the evening before diminishing. KAVL will see NNW wind throughout with very gusty conditions during the afternoon and evening. Outlook: Drier and likely VFR conditions can be expected this weekend. Moisture returns late Monday with active weather possible by Tuesday. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...RWH SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...RWH