298
FXUS61 KGYX 060000
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
800 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will continue to bring periods of rain
through tonight before ending by early Monday morning. A cold
front will then cross later Monday with warming temperatures and
drier conditions returning through Tuesday. Unsettled weather
and cooler temperatures are then likely for the middle and end
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

8:00pm Update... Tweaked POPs and temps for tonight based on
radar trends and latest high res guidance. No real notable
changes with this update as the shield of light to at times
moderate rain continues to move through Maine and New Hampshire,
and is expected to begin shutting off across western areas over
the next few hours.

Previous...

Northeast radar mosaic this afternoon shows an area of rainfall
stretching from the Mid-Atlantic to New England and moving to the
northeast. This rain is in association with a mid-level shortwave
trough axis that is currently located over Upstate NY. Light to
moderate stratiform rain will continue to overspread the region
through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Current
temperatures are mainly into the 40s where it has already
started to rain with 50s elsewhere. Some wet bulbing will occur
through the remainder of the day, which will allow temperatures
to cool into the 40s in most locations by this evening.

The h5 ridge axis will move offshore tonight as a vorticity maximum
crosses over and then exits the coast after midnight. Latest hi-res
guidance indicates stratiform rain will move offshore after midnight
with just some lingering light showers or drizzle in its wake. Total
rainfall will mostly be below 1/2", although the higher
elevations and spots in western NH could receive slightly higher
amounts. The lingering LL moisture combined with light flow
will likely result in fog overnight. The latest HREF indicates
some of this fog could become locally dense after midnight,
especially across the coast and coastal plain. Therefore, went
ahead and added this wording to these regions. Low temperatures
will primarily be into the 40s

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A sfc cold front will cross on Monday, bringing a return to
drier and warmer conditions. Skies will gradually clear through
the morning and early afternoon with partly sunny skies expected
for the late afternoon and evening. There remains some
uncertainty in the how quickly the immediate coast clears as
some guidance keeps low-level clouds near the coast or just
offshore. If these clouds were to linger longer then coastal
locations would remain on the cooler side. Forecast highs range
from the lower to middle 70s across the interior with 60s east
of generally I-95 and 50s along the immediate coastline. An
isolated shower cannot be ruled out during the afternoon but
much of the day should be dry as winds become westerly behind
the front.

Monday night will feature partly cloudy skies with light
westerly winds. Some valley fog may develop overnight but it
likely won`t be as widespread as tonight. Lows will once again
primarily be into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The mostly blocky pattern across the N Hemisphere mid latitudes
will continue through the end of the week into next weekend.
More locally, by mid week, we move into zonal to weakly
amplified flow between two closed lows, as the closed low to our
west drifts slowly closer through the week, and acts a wave
generator, with with chunks of energy moving into it from the NW
and ejecting it toward the E. This general pattern should once
again provide persistent onshore flow, and several rounds of
showers, similar to what we saw last week.

The one bit of good news in this forecast, is that Tuesday will
be a sunny and mild day as high pressure moves through. Highs
range from the mid to upper 60s in the mtns and along the
immediate ME coast /where sea breeze will develop/, to the mid
to upper 70s in the srn half of NH and interior SW ME. Tue night
should remain dry as well, although clouds will be on the
increase, with lows mostly in the 40s.

On Wed, itll be be mainly cloudy with showers moving in from
the W during the morning. The weak sfc low will be passing to
our S with ridging to the N and E, so this should help onshore
flow develop, which combined with any rain will mean maxes 55-60
across most of the CWA, but 60-65 in SW NH and the CT valley.
Showers should shift E of the area during Wed evening, and I
think we may see a dry spell, although continued cloudy and cool
on Thu, as that ridge to out N shift slightly to the S. This is
a fine line forecast, so if we see less of the ridge from the N,
may end up with showers again Thu. Looks like showers return on
Friday, and it stays cool in onshore flow. The weekend remains
uncertain, as the 12Z model runs have flipped to a more
progressive closed low at 500 MB, which would mean a better
chance for a dry Saturday, but this far out confidence is very
low, given the changeable models.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...Ceilings continue to lower tonight with IFR to
locally LIFR restrictions expected. Periods of -RA will continue
through around 06Z before moving offshore with pockets of -DZ
possible through 12Z. Fog is likely overnight with some locally
dense with visibility of 1/4SM or less. The greatest potential
for this will be across coastal TAF sites. Conditions improve
after 12Z Monday behind a cold front with winds turning westerly
at 5-10 kts, gusts to 20 kts. Some MVFR restrictions could
linger through early afternoon, mainly across coastal sites.
Mainly VFR is then likely Monday night, although some valley FG
could cause restrictions late at KLEB and KHIE. No LLWS is
expected.

Long Term...VFR prevails Tuesday into Tuesday night, but will
likely move to MVFR in SHRA on Wed, with some IFR possible at
time Wed night. I think well be stuck with at MVFR Thu into
Friday as several waves move through , and with onshore flow may
see IFR at times inland, and maybe more persistent IFR at
coastal terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Periods of light rain and fog will continue
through tonight with southeasterly winds prevailing but
remaining below 25 kts. Cold front crosses on Monday with winds
becoming west- northwesterly with gusts up to 20 kts. Seas will
be at 1-3 ft, highest outside of the bays.

Long Term...Winds/seas stay below SCA criteria through Thu, but
may be needed on Friday as a stronger low passes S of the
waters.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Tubbs
NEAR TERM...Clair
SHORT TERM...Tubbs
LONG TERM...Cempa