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000
FXUS64 KHUN 211814
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
114 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

The area of stratiform rain that impacted the forecast area this
morning has now pushed into far northeast AL and will exit the
region later this afternoon. In its wake, a cooler and drier
airmass has entered in from the northwest. High pressure, centered
over the Plains begins to filter into the Southeast tonight as the
upper level trough axis shifts off towards the East Coast. As a
result, light winds and mostly clear skies should allow for ideal
radiational cooling with overnight lows dipping into the mid to
upper 30s. In particular, locations in southern middle TN may see
temperatures as low as 36 degrees and combined with enough
moisture, frost development is possible. Therefore a Frost
Advisory has been issued from 1am to 8am Monday morning. For our
Alabama counties, lower confidence in frost given slightly warmer
conditions. This will be monitored as we head into the evening
hours and updates may be needed to the frost advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

As we head into the upcoming work week, high pressure continues
to build off to our west. Upper level ridging amplifies across the
Plains resulting in a more zonal flow across the Southeast. This
will make for a beautiful first half of the week with ample
sunshine and seasonal temperatures with afternoon highs in the
upper 60s on Monday and mid 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak
front attempts to drop south across the Ohio River Valley on
Wednesday, but latest ensemble guidance has it stall just to our
north. Plus with the lack of moisture, even if it dips further
south, rain chances appear quite low.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

An upper ridge axis will build amplify across the region Thursday
and Friday. Cloud cover ahead of a low pressure system well to the
west will filter back into the region, especially by Friday
However, deep southerly flow (combined with sufficient breaks of
sunshine) will help push highs back into the mid 70s on Thursday
and the upper 70s to lower 80s on Friday and Saturday. A
pronounced longwave trough over the western United States will
slowly progress eastward late this week into the weekend. This
will be the next feature to watch as it may bring our next decent
chances for showers/storms this weekend and/or early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.
Winds this afternoon and evening will be gusty out of the north 15
to 20 knots. Light winds return around midnight.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Monday for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...GH