Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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982 FXUS63 KICT 140531 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1231 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 ...Updated for Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers/isolated storm chances lingering this evening. - Chance for storms Tuesday night through Thursday night. - Trending warmer for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 A mid/upper trough over the region is progged to drift eastward tonight with any lingering light precipitation ending from west to east early in the period. Clearing will happen for central and western Kansas while some low clouds may linger for the Flint Hills and much of southeast Kansas. As a narrow sfc ridge axis translates into central KS toward morning on Tue we could see some transient fog formation but confidence in how widespread this will become remains fairly low. Tue...Shortwave mid/upper ridging will overspread the area on Tue with tranquil weather anticipated. Light southeast winds will return from west to east with mild temperatures in the 70s/around 80. A shortwave trough over the Northern Rockies is progged to dig south and eastward into the Central Plains Tue night bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to the area. The higher probables will remain mainly west of I-135 Tue night. Wed-Thu...A warm front is progged to sharpen across southern Kansas on Wed and could become a focus for afternoon showers and storms. Some locations across parts of south central KS could see highs climb into the 80s while most locations top out in the 70s. Some modest mid-lvl flow coupled with steep lapse rates may allow for a few strong or severe storms over mainly southern Kansas through the evening hours. As we move into Thu, the effective front will likely be south of the area but some modest pops were maintained early in the period. Seasonable temperatures are anticipated with highs in the mid 70s for most areas. Fri-Mon...Mid/upper ridging will return on Fri bringing a return to dry weather conditions and above normal temperatures. Another frontal boundary will be driven southward into the area on Sat providing a focus for showers and storms. Above normal temperatures are expected to persist over the weekend and into early next week. An active pattern may return as we move into the beginning of next week with the potential for severe weather returning to the area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Light winds, variable at times, expected over the next 24 hours. MVFR to IFR cigs will continue across southeast KS overnight and should return to VFR but mid morning. After 9z, some BR/FG may start to develop across portions of Central KS. Confidence in BR/FG coverage is low thus kept out of TAFs for now. Chances (20-40%) of showers and storms will increase toward the end of the TAF period across central KS. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWM AVIATION...KMB