717
FXUS63 KICT 190554
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1254 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon-
  evening, a few strong storms are possible

- Severe storms likely on Sunday afternoon and evening for
  central and south central Kansas

- More severe storms look to impact the region again on Tuesday
  mainly along and east of the Kansas turnpike

- Additional rounds of storms will continue for Thursday-Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

A frontal boundary will stall out over southern Kansas this
afternoon and a few storms could develop as there will be some weak
convergence present along the boundary. The flow aloft is rather
weak so expecting storm structure to be less organized and a few
strong storms will be possible. Meanwhile, a easterly low-level
moist upslope regime north of the front will likely spark off
convection over eastern Colorado later this afternoon. This activity
should grow and expand into a slower forward propagating MCS as low
level jet/moisture transport increases over western Kansas this
evening and overnight. The complex of storms will mainly affect
northern Kansas/central Nebraska for late tonight into Sunday
morning. Some of this activity could spread into central Kansas with
a few strong storms possible. This could also push an outflow
boundary southward into south central Kansas which will likely
mix back northward during the day on Sunday.

The focus will then shift to Sunday afternoon/evening as current
satellite water vapor imagery shows a upper level wave moving
eastward from the Pacific Ocean into southern California. This upper
level system will race eastward across the Rockies tonight and eject
into Nebraska/Kansas during the afternoon on Sunday. Mid-level
temperatures will be rather warm and look to prohibit storm
development until this upper wave approaches the dry-line by mid-
late afternoon. Once storms develop they will quickly become severe
given high instability/wind shear combination. The storms should
initially start out as discrete supercells with 0-6km shear vector
orientation more perpendicular to dry-line. The environment looks
more mixed out with higher LCLs so very large hail and destructive
winds up to 80mph will be main threats given higher DCAPE. There is
some tornado potential and a risk window area would be mainly
over south central Kansas just west and near I-35 in the evening
as low-level jet increases(boosting 0-3km SRH) and LCLs could
become a little lower in the deeper moisture. The storms look to
congeal into a line of storms with cold pool interference with
damaging to destructive winds becoming the main hazard as the
evening goes on. Heading into Monday the warmer capping 700mb
temperatures looks more formidable and with no upper wave to aid
in upper forcing if any storms go along the dry line they would
be isolated and could become severe. Tuesday we will have a
better chance for severe storms to affect the region again as
models show another upper level wave interacting with the dry
line, and an associated cold front pushing southeast into a
highly unstable and sheared environment.

Looks like a quiet weather day will be in store for Wednesday as
surface high pressure builds over the region in the wake of
Tuesday`s frontal passage. However that looks to be short-lived with
ensemble models showing mainly west/southwest flow aloft returning
for Thursday and Friday which could lead to more rounds of storms
over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

A busy TAF period is ahead, especially Sunday afternoon through
Sunday night.

VFR conditions are expected to prevail from now through about
21Z Sunday afternoon. Showers and storms across western Kansas
are expected to continue moving northeast, and they could
potentially affect area along and north of the I-70 corridor.
However, chances for impacts remain low at this time, so this
has been omitted from the TAFs. If anything changes within the
next few hours, short term amendments may be needed for KRSL and
KSLN prior to the 12Z TAF issuance.

Strong to severe storms are expected to develop by 21Z on
Sunday and quickly progress eastward during the evening and
nighttime hours. Large hail up to golf balls, winds up to 75
mph are expected with any storms that develop, especially
between 21Z and 03Z. Storms are expected to weaken as they move
east of the Flint Hills, but gusty winds and small hail will
continue to be possible between 03Z-06Z.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...JC