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000
FXUS61 KILN 130129
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
929 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong winds and a few showers will linger into this evening
in the cool westerly flow behind departing low pressure.
Decreasing winds and clouds can be expected tonight as the low
pushes farther east. High pressure is forecast to provide dry
weather on Saturday. The threat for thunderstorms returns Sunday
as low pressure tracks to the Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Scattered showers are continuing to slide southeast along a
boundary stretching from northern Indiana into eastern Kentucky.
These have been gradually decreasing in coverage and intensity
and expect this trend to continue through the rest of the
evening and early overnight hours as we further stabilize.
Overnight lows will be in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A ridge of high pressure is forecast to track across the Ohio
Valley. This feature will result in no precipitation and scant
cloud cover Saturday into Saturday night. It will stay rather
breezy with gusts over 20 mph from the northwest on Saturday,
before speeds drop Saturday evening while direction shifts to
southwest ahead of the next wave of low pressure. As this next
low moves toward the Great Lakes later Saturday night, clouds
and winds will increase, and a few showers may occur over far
northern locations.

Temperatures are expected to rebound into the 60s on Saturday
due to insolation and warm advection, with lows Saturday night
in the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A filling low is forecast to be approaching the lower Great Lakes
region on Sunday. While this low dives in from the upper midwest, a
theta-e push will occur south of the low over the Ohio Valley on
increasing southerly flow. A chance for showers and thunderstorms
does exist with the surge of warm, moist air. However, a capping
inversion from an EML may inhibit surface-based storms from
occurring. If storms do break through the CAP ahead of a southward
moving cold front Sunday afternoon, they could pose a severe storm
risk as highlighted by SPC day 3 marginal risk. Considering the CAP,
this is severe risk is largely a conditional risk that is contingent
on storms actually occurring. Upcoming CAM guidance should help
provide more guidance on possible storm initiation for
Sunday afternoon. Forecast highs on Sunday are in the middle 70s.

The chance for showers and storms continues into Sunday night and
Monday morning ahead of the southward-moving cold front attached to
the filling low. The cold front is forecast to finally push south of
most of the forecast area by Monday afternoon. Winds turn to the
north behind the front and temperatures are expected to drop into
the 50s by Monday night.

The brief cooldown does not last long as another low is forecast to
form in the central Plains by Tuesday. This low will lift a warm
front through the Ohio Valley on Tuesday leading to a chance for
showers and storms ahead of the front. Warmer temperatures,
increased humidity, and southerly winds persist after FROPA through
Wednesday ahead of a cold front associated with the aforementioned
low. The chance of showers and thunderstorms may increase on
Wednesday when forcing overlaps with instability over the Ohio
Valley. Temperatures may eventually drop back closer to average by
late week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers are continuing along a boundary stretching from
southern Lake Michigan into eastern Kentucky. These showers
will likely affect the southern TAF sites over the next couple
of hours, but do expect to see an overall weakening trend as we
lose the daytime instability. This will lead to a gradual
decrease in clouds overnight with VFR conditions expected
through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will decrease
somewhat this evening but still remain gusty to around 25 knots
at times tonight into Saturday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Sunday and Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...JGL