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000
FXUS61 KILN 241652
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1252 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring cool and dry conditions today and Thursday.
Temperatures moderate by the end of the week and rain chances
return.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A cold front is now located about halfway through the ILN
forecast area. The forward progress of this front is slowing,
but behind it, there is a notable amount of relatively cold air
at 925mb-850mb. This cooler air aloft is leading to quite a bit
of 1000ft-2000ft cloud development, and these clouds are
gradually filling in from north to south. Would expect mostly
cloudy to cloudy conditions in the northern CWA, with some
breaks still likely sticking around in the southern CWA.

Temperatures have been warming a little bit ahead of the
forecast expectations in the areas where skies are still more
clear, so max temps were increased by a degree or two in the
south.

Previous discussion >
A cold front attached to a surface low in southeast Canada will
continue pushing through the Ohio Valley this morning. Winds shift
to the west behind the front which will allow cooler, drier air to
work in from the northwest. The magnitude of the diurnal temperature
trace is likely to be suppressed due to CAA and some clouds today.
Forecast highs only reach into the lower 50s north of I-70 to the
middle 60s south of the Ohio River. Winds are expected to start
weakening by the late afternoon and cloud cover should begin to
scatter which will give way to a chilly night for late April.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure builds in from the north tonight. Fairly
favorable conditions for radiational cooling are expected although
there could be some lingering lower level clouds and 850 hPa
moisture. A Freeze Watch remains in the highlighting areas
where temperatures are most likely to drop below freezing. Once
cloud cover is better resolved in the mesoscale guidance,
updated frost and freeze headlines will likely be needed.
Forecast lows range from the lower to middle 30s areawide.

Surface high pressure continues slowly drifting east on Thursday.
Winds remain out of the northeast which allows highs to remain
suppressed in the upper 50s to middle 60s despite abundant
sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A pattern change will be in the offing as we head into Thursday
night and Friday. A mid level ridge will move east into the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley. Once we get on the back side of this ridge, a
warm front will move northeast into the region. This front will
bring an increase in moisture along with an enhanced low level jet.
The result will be an increasing chance for pcpn (showers, perhaps a
few rumbles of thunder). After lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s,
increasing southerly flow will boost temperatures into the upper 60s
to the lower 70s on Friday.

For Friday night into Saturday, the warm front will move northeast
into the Great Lakes. Pcpn ongoing Friday night will diminish on
Saturday as the region becomes warm sectored. After lows in the
upper 50s to the lower 60s, highs on Saturday will warm into the 75
to 80 degree range.

The remainder of the weekend may be relatively dry as we remain warm
sectored with just a low chance of a shower or storm. Temperatures
will further warm into the upper 70s to the lower/mid 80s.

By Monday, a mid level trough will finally make in roads into the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, pushing a cold front southeast into the
region. This will bring an uptick in showers and thunderstorms as
the front interacts with an unstable airmass. Temperatures will
range from the mid 70s west to the lower/mid 80s east.

By Tuesday, the front is forecast to exit to the east, bringing an
end to the pcpn threat, which will allow high pressure to build back
into the area for mid week. Temperatures will remain above normal in
the mid 70s to the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Some MVFR ceilings are still around the area early this
afternoon, but all ceilings should lift or scatter out to VFR
within the next few hours. VFR conditions are then expected
through the rest of the TAF period. Northerly winds of around 10
knots are expected this afternoon, shifting to the northeast at
10 knots or less through tonight and into tomorrow.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Friday night into Saturday.
Thunderstorms are possible on Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Freeze Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Thursday
     morning for OHZ026-034-035-043>046-052-054>056-065.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Hatzos
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Hatzos