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000
FXUS63 KJKL 280801
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
401 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm this afternoon. Unseasonable warmth prevails through
  the middle of the week.

- Showers arrive Monday night through Tuesday, with a chance for
  thunder.

- More showers and storms are expected late this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT SUN APR 28 2024

After a seasonably cool start this morning, high temperatures will
soar some eight to ten degrees above normal this afternoon; low 80s.
Our forecast high temperatures are within the 90th percentile of all
forecast guidance which is acceptable given few clouds and a strong
ridge axis overhead. Non-zero chance for some fog in the valleys
tonight due in part to the aforementioned ridge. This ridge begins to
retreat through Monday in response to a trough moving northeast into
the upper Great Lakes. But, dry weather prevails through the day
with high temperatures just a touch warmer than Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT SUN APR 28 2024

The 28/00z model suite beginning Monday evening shows a 500H ridge
axis to our east, extending from the Carolinas northward into
Quebec. An associated surface ridge is centered over Bermuda and
another over Quebec. Meanwhile, a 500H trough will be situated to
our west through the Mississippi Valley. This trough is separated by
a col from a deeper trough/low over the the Pacific Northwest. Ahead
of the former trough, there is an ~ 1004 mb low near/over Lake
Superior with an associated cold front extending southward into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley.

That cold front will press eastward Monday night and begin to
dissipate while its parent trough aloft lifts northeast and fills.
Rain chances will initially rise across eastern Kentucky on Monday
night/early Tuesday as the front approaches, and then slowly
diminish on Tuesday/Tuesday evening as the decaying boundary passes.
While some thunder is possible, severe weather is not expected due
to insufficient instability and shear. Any cooling of the air mass
behind the front will be brief and minimal as ridging quickly
rebuilds across the Ohio Valley, first at the surface then aloft on
Wednesday into Thursday. Some of the model guidance hints at
convection trying ride into the ridge from the west, but confidence
in this actually occurring is low. In fact, PoPs remain under 15%
until later in the day on Thursday when the next upper level low
ejects onto the Plains, initiating a new low pressure system
tracking from near/over the Oklahoma Panhandle early that morning to
over the Great Lakes late Friday. Another cold front will trail
south and southwest of that low, crossing eastern Kentucky with
additional rain and thunder, highest chances on Friday into
Saturday.

In sensible terms look for May to arrive on a very mild note as the
last of  April`s showers assuredly yield to May flowers. Those
showers are forecast to become numerous to widespread (70-80%
chance) on Monday night/early Tuesday before gradually declining on
Tuesday/Tuesday evening with the departure of the first cold front.
Some thunder cannot be ruled out, but severe weather is not
expected. Overall rainfall amounts are forecast to generally be one
half inch or less. Clouds will keep temperatures cooler, with highs
generally in the middle 70s, a bit of a cool down following Monday`s
highs in the 80s. Looking ahead to Wednesday and Thursday, most of
the time looks to feature ample sunshine, and just the slightest
chance for a shower or stray storm. Temperatures once again turn
notably warmer again with daily maximum temperatures in the lower to
middle 80s on Wednesday and middle to upper 80s on Thursday. Shower
and thunder chances return as the second cold front nears late
Thursday and Thursday night, becoming likely to numerous on Friday
and Saturday. As the front moves through, temperatures will once
again decline back into the 70s for highs on Saturday. Nighttime
lows should mainly range in the middle 50 to middle 60s through the
period.&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SUN APR 28 2024

Existing TAFs were in great shape; few to no changes needed. Right
of high pressure off the Southeast US coast remains our driver of
local weather conditions. High clouds pass by in the vicinity of
robust thunderstorms over the mid-Mississippi river valley.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...BROWN