Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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FXUS62 KKEY 250908 CCA
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 417 AM
EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

A narrow surface high pressure located along the Mid-Atlantic States
and points north is becoming wedged between a deepening low in the
North Atlantic and a secondary surface low moving across the Central
Plains. This is resulting in a tightening of the pressure gradient
and leading to an increase in the easterly winds. Currently seeing
speeds of 15 to 20 knots across our eastern marine zones and
shifting westward with time. Along the leading edge of this surge
are light showers and sprinkles, which for the most part have stayed
out across the waters. Lastly, the easterly winds are keeping
temperatures in the lower to mid 70s with dew points in the mid 60s.

.FORECAST...
The forecast remains well on track over the next 7 days. The
aforementioned high pressure that is wedged between features will
continue to impose a tighter pressure gradient across the region
through Tuesday morning. This in turn will keep a period of breezy
to potentially windy conditions for the island chain through the
same period. By Tuesday afternoon the low currently located in the
Central Plains will eject northeast into the Great Lakes Region.
This will allow for the gradient across the Florida Peninsula and
the Keys to relax and bring a brief reprieve midweek.

As the aforementioned low treks northeast into the Great Lakes
region, it will orphan a cold front that will slowly sag south and
southeast Wednesday. By Wednesday evening an energized southern
stream shortwave will catch up with this front and help to breathe
new life into a new surface low that looks to develop in the
vicinity of the Carolina/Georgia coast on Thursday. This new low
coupled with a Canadian High diving southeast of the central U.S.
will drive a late season cold front across the Keys Thursday. In its
wake expect another period of fresh to strong breezes. As the high
quickly shifts eastward out across the Atlantic, breezes will clock
around from the northwest to northeast and eventually easterly for
the upcoming weekend.

As the front comes through, there is still evidence that enough
instability coupled with the lift from the front will allow for at
least an isolated threat for a few thunderstorms. Otherwise, not
expecting a noticeable air mass change though dew points will fall
below 60 degrees for a couple days after the frontal passage.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

A surge in easterly winds is overtaking the coastal waters of the
Florida Keys this morning. As such a Small Craft Advisory is
currently active across all waters. Fresh breezes will persist
through Tuesday before gradually slackening as the pressure gradient
relaxes. This will be brief as breezes will freshen from the
northwest on Thursday due a strong late season cold front. Expect a
period of fresh to strong breezes Thursday afternoon through the
overnight and slowly slackening through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 415 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

VFR conditions will persist at EYW and MTH through the TAF period. A
few isolated showers may at times graze the island terminals however
any reduction to CIGs will be brief. Near surface winds will surge
out of the east to southeast today to moderate breezes after sunrise
with fresh, possibly strong, gusts.

&&

.CLIMATE...

On this day in Keys weather history, in 1873,the daily record high
temperature of 89F was recorded. This measurement tied the warmest
temperature ever recorded in March at Key West. Temperature records
at Key West date back to 1873.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  82  74  83  75 /  10   0   0   0 Marathon  82  74  83  75
/  10   0   0   0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-
072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP
Data Acquisition.....AJP

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