Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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306 FXUS64 KLCH 041706 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1206 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1137 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Scattered convection has been developing across northern Hardin and Tyler Counties, and will be moving east into Jasper and Newton in the next few hours. Adjusted hourly PoPs to reflect current radar obs and trends through early afternoon. Convection will bear monitoring as morning soundings indicate mid-level lapse rates and instability sufficient to support some isolated hail or strong wind gusts. On top of this, the threat for flash flooding will persist given saturated conditions across SE TX. Outside of PoPs, only minor changes were made to hourly T/Td to align with morning obs, otherwise forecast has been generally on track. Text products have been updated and issued. 24 && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A broken line of convection, with a history of producing hail, continues to traverse the coastal waters of southeast Texas at this hour. This activity was very poorly accounted for in short range guidance, wasn`t depicted in previous forecasts and was, frankly, very unexpected this morning. Still, the seemingly shallow shortwave responsible appears to be losing steam as it progresses and a gradual weakening trend should continue with storms dissipating entirely by mid morning. Inland, another round of better forecasted light fog continues to develop across the region this morning where winds have become light or calm. As has been the case the last couple of morning, this should be fairly short lived after sunrise. Some of the upper level moisture presently supporting the ongoing convection in the gulf is progged to lift inland across the region today where it will interact with another weak energy wave moving across the region this afternoon initializing isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms as it does so. While any storms that develop will be capable of producing brief heavy rainfall, precip totals should remain generally under a half inch and aren`t expected to be enough to exacerbate previous or ongoing flooding across the region. A stronger shortwave and another surge of moisture will push across the region closer to the coast Sunday initializing scattered to widespread convection as it does so. Forecast QPF with this disturbance is higher than today with pockets of locally heavy rainfall having the potential to cause some localized flooding. This convection should end quickly during the evening as the shortwave lifts off to the Northeast in what should be the last of the parade of MCS`s seen across the area the last several days. Despite no appreciable upper level support, there will be enough residual moisture across the region Monday to allow for some isolated diurnally driven afternoon convection during the afternoon with these quickly ending Monday evening. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Drier air aloft will finally shut off the spigot Tuesday beginning a noticeable warming trend with afternoon highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s and even a few lower 90s across parts of central Louisiana and interior Southeast Texas Wednesday and Thursday. Combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat indices will be flirting with 100 for the first time since last fall. The good news is that this looks to be fairly short lived as a frontal boundary is progged to push through the region Friday advecting noticeably cooler temperatures back into the region by next weekend. Jones && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Visible satellite shows multiple cloud layers over the region, a low cumulus deck forming amid the southeasterly low level flow and a midlevel altocumulus deck spreading across the area from the west. The lowest clouds continue to create a mix of SCT VFR to BKN MVFR conditions at area terminals, but anticipate all sites will prevail in VFR through the afternoon. A few TSRA will also be possible through the afternoon as a weak perturbation moves over the area. Cigs should gradually lower back to MVFR overnight into Sunday morning, amid generally light southerly winds. Another round of SHRA/TSRA will begin moving into the area from the west after 12Z Sunday, potentially affecting BPT/LCH. 24 && .MARINE... Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Scattered thunderstorms will continue to traverse the coastal waters through the early morning, but should gradually weaken as they do so with activity coming to an end by mid morning. Additional showers and thunderstorms may develop Sunday afternoon with a drier pattern expected Monday through Friday. Light to moderate onshore flow and seas of three to four feet will prevail through the day and much of the upcoming week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 84 66 81 66 / 30 20 60 20 LCH 83 70 83 70 / 30 20 50 20 LFT 85 71 85 71 / 30 10 30 20 BPT 83 72 83 71 / 20 20 50 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...24