Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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823 FXUS64 KLCH 292018 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 318 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Convection is gradually exiting the area to the east with light to moderate rain lingering south and east of New Iberia and over the gulf waters. Some spotty flooding is also continuing across interior SE TX and West LA from previous rain. The upper disturbance responsible for this morning;s convection will continue east and away. This will give the region a period of quiet weather with light winds that is expected to last through tonight. Low lvl moisture from today`s rain may combine with the light winds and clear skies to allow fog to develop around sunrise Tomorrow the flow will again turn SE with surface moisture being pulled back north. While not mentioned in the forecast, an isolated shower may be possible by afternoon in SE TX and western LA as the moisture gets pulled back toward the plains. Showers and storms may be possible locally again by Wednesday. Another system will move into the plains and gradually move closer for the extended portion of the forecast. Ahead of this disturbance, ample moisture will be in place and with afternoon heating, scattered convection will be possible. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Sunday) Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 The beginning of the long term will be active as a weak frontal boundary is pushed into the plains before stalling out along the northern fringe of the CWA. Thanks to the rainfall received today (Monday), flooding will be possible with additional rainfall amounts expected on Thursday and Friday. As a result, WPC has place us in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. As this will be May, the front is not going (nor expected) to bring down significantly cooler or drier air. Temperatures will be held to the low 80s thanks to cloud cover and rain Thursday and Friday while daytime temps will rise into the mid to upper 80s for the rest of the period. Overnight temps will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s with near matching dewpoints. Stigger/87 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Rain is exiting the region this afternoon with areas of MVFR ceilings are expected through the remainder of the afternoon. Tonight with lingering moisture in place, fog may develop toward sunrise with IFR of even LIFR vis possible for a brief period. && .MARINE... Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Winds continue to decrease with storms exiting the area. The light and VRB flow will turn back southeast then increase into the 10 to 20kt range by Wednesday. An SCA may be needed by Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens slightly more with winds in the gulf waters increasing above 20kts briefly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 63 85 62 85 / 0 0 0 30 LCH 66 85 68 83 / 0 10 10 40 LFT 67 87 70 87 / 10 10 0 30 BPT 67 85 70 84 / 0 10 10 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...05