130
FXUS64 KLIX 051745
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1245 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Weak ridging remains over the area today and tomorrow, providing
warm temperatures to continue to build over the area. The
subsequent downstream surface high pressure over the Atlantic will
keep providing warm and moist air advection into the area. The
pumping in of warm and moist air at the surface will create
adequate instability (>2000 j/kg SBCAPE) across the area ahead of
a decaying storm complex from Texas. With the instability in place
and the forcing from a potential outflow boundary from the storm
complex, the western and northwestern portions of the area could
see scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary. Those
cells will be competing with the subsidence of the ridge, so that
is mainly why the coverage should be scattered in nature. Needless
to say, the CAPE and lack of wind shear with the suppression from
the ridge supports maybe a strong storm or two, with a marginally
severe storm possible in the early afternoon as the outflow from
the complex passes through.

Monday looks to similar to Sunday. Slight ridging is still
expected to be over the area with continued onshore flow. The only
discernible difference is that we will not have a decaying storm
complex coming our way. So, although we will have adequate
instability again (>2000 j/kg SBCAPE), a lack of a trigger like an
outflow boundary and the suppression from the ridge will keep
rain coverage very isolated to scattered at most.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Much of the long term will be dominated by ridging over the
northeast gulf. This will keep us mainly dry and and very warm
over the next week. We will continue to get warmer and more humid
over the week, with potential heat indices getting over 100
degrees Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures are expected to
be near or over 10 degrees warmer than average next Tuesday
through Thursday. That first stretch of "summer-like" heat catches
people off guard since we have not been acclimated to it yet, so
make sure you`re not caught off guard by the first shot of summer
heat.

There is some indications that a cold front will make its way down
here towards the end of the week on Friday. With it being 5+ days
out, there is some uncertainty around this occurring. We are
starting to get into that time of year where fronts stall out
before making it this far south, so do not be surprised if that
one does not make it down here. If it does, expects showers and
thunderstorms along it with the very warm and moist air ahead of
it and a slight cool down for the weekend into the upper 70s and
low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Scattered low topped showers have begun to develop near MCB, BTR,
and HDC over the past hour in tandem with increased daytime
heating and low level instability. This low topped convection may
briefly pass over a terminal and produce a short period of MVFR or
IFR visibilities, but the impact is too minimal to include in the
TAF. For now, have included VCSH wording to reflect this shower
risk. Otherwise, prevailing VFR conditions and southerly winds of
around 10 knots are expected through the evening hours. After 06z,
conditions look favorable for some boundary decoupling to occur
over inland areas, and have included IFR ceilings and visibilities
in the forecast from 08z to 14z at MCB and BTR. At ASD and HDC,
IFR conditions will be shorter in duration and more conditioned on
how light boundary layer gets tonight. Given the lower
probabilities for these terminals, have only included a TEMPO
group between 09z and 13z for IFR ceilings and visibilities. The
remainder of the terminals will see a mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings
between 08z and 16z.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 743 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

The IFR ceilings and visibilities impacting the northern terminals
are improving across those areas. Expect any of those issues to
subside in the next hour or two as daytime heating mixes those
issues out. Other than that, VFR conditions are expected to
prevail at all terminals throughout the day today and into
tonight. MCB could see VCTS this afternoon and evening, but most
other terminals will be dry. Terminals with IFR conditions this
morning should expect to see similar conditions tomorrow morning
as low-level moisture continues to advect into the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

The entire forecast period will be dominated by ridging and
onshore flow. This will lead to fairly benign marine conditions
for today and the upcoming week. There are indications of a
potential frontal passage at the end of the week on Friday, but
due to how far out it is and the time of year, there is a bit of
uncertainty at this time for that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  85  69  88 /  20  30   0  20
BTR  71  88  73  91 /  20  30   0  10
ASD  71  88  72  90 /  10  20   0  10
MSY  73  87  75  89 /  10  20   0  10
GPT  72  84  73  85 /  10  20   0  10
PQL  70  86  71  88 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...JZ