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FXUS64 KLIX 060836
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
336 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

A rather zonal/progressive upper level flow will continue through
the morning and into the afternoon hours across our region. With
low level moisture continuing to increase with a southerly return
flow, some low stratus/fog will be possible, especially across
southwest MS and the Florida parishes of Louisiana. This should
lift shortly after sunrise as stronger insolation takes place
allowing clouds to mix out effectively. Later today and into
tonight an H5 impulse begins to round the base of the larger scale
trough centered over the plains and Rockies. Overall, this
feature appears weak in nature, but could spark off an isolated
shower or storm or two. At this juncture, with much of the support
being to our northwest, only our northwestern tier will have the
better POPs...even then generally at or below 30 percent.

Overnight any rainfall that does develop will come to an end with
the loss of daytime heating as well as the upper level impulse
racing downstream. Tuesday, the region will transition to a more
active southwesterly flow with an impulse or two expected to move
northeast through the flow providing folks generally along and
north of the I10/12 corridor with nonzero POPs. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Going into the long range, not much change to the overall pattern
across our region early on. Heights will slightly increase with a
592dam ridge across the southern Gulf of Mexico with gradually
rising heights over our region. Our area will remain under the
active southwesterly flow, but any impulse appears very subtle at
this juncture with very little in terms of POP/QPF signal at least
through midweek. The broad scale trough across the northern
Plains through the Rockies will continue to amplify with time.
This will help a frontal boundary move a bit closer or into our
region Thursday and Friday. With at least some better upper
support late Thursday and into Friday, think that this will
likely be the best rain chances we have this week, at least in
terms of coverage and QPF.

Going into the upcoming weekend things get a bit interesting. A
bit of a cool down opposite the front is expected. The front
actually looks to move through the region and as far south as
South Florida (which is incredibly rare for this time of year).
The front is being driven by a Canadian upper trough that
amplifies over the Great Lakes and into the Ohio River Valley late
this week and into the weekend. With a bit of a pattern change
back to dry WNW or zonal upper flow, the weekend should actually
be cooler and drier after reaching the lower and middle 90s on
Wednesday and Thursday. Beyond this time the forecast becomes very
tricky. The GFS has another Canadian trough amplifying over the
plains and into the mid MS River Valley. At the same time, this
trough begins to phase with a pacific trough finally kicking east
from the Rockies. This would provide a source for a bit of an
active weather pattern later this weekend and into early next
including well below average temperatures for this time of year.
The ECM has a bit different look with a short wave ridge across
the MS River Valley on Monday. So needless to say overall
confidence beyond Saturday drops pretty quickly. In fact, there`s
roughly a 20 degree difference between the GFS and ECM in terms of
temps on day seven. For now, we will lean more toward climo,
which would favor more of an ECM solution, but not totally sold on
tossing the GFS solution out the window as of now, as the ECM
still shows the aforementioned Canadian trough...just avoids
phasing with the ongoing Pacific trough over the western tier.
(Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Most of the high cloud cover is rapidly shifting eastward with a
shortwave that will be entirely east of the area in the next few
hours. Main question will be extent of low clouds/fog around
sunrise. While MVFR ceilings are likely at pretty much all
terminals around sunrise, IFR or lower ceilings will be likely
briefly at KMCB/KASD/KHDC/KHUM and perhaps KBTR. Do expect quick
improvement around 14-15z, to at least MVFR. Most or all terminals
will experience VFR conditions during the afternoon hours. The
local area looks to be between shortwaves during the daytime hours
on Monday, so the threat of convective activity looks to be rather
limited, if any occurs at all. Lower clouds will again return
overnight Monday night. (RW)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Moderate onshore flow will continue through mid to late week this
week. Winds across the MS Sound and the tidal lakes may enhance
some during the daytime. Used cautionary headlines respectively.
Otherwise, winds begin to increase later on this week with SCA
may be needed going into the late week and into te upcoming
weekend. (Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  68  87  69 /  30  10  30   0
BTR  89  73  90  73 /  40  10  10   0
ASD  88  71  89  72 /  20  10  20   0
MSY  88  75  89  75 /  20  10  10   0
GPT  85  73  86  73 /  20  10  10   0
PQL  87  71  87  71 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RDF