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000
FXUS65 KLKN 121159
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
459 AM PDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms today and again
on Saturday, along with gusty southerly winds in the afternoon
and evening hours which may result in blowing dust and reduced
visibilities. Much cooler Saturday night into Sunday with light
snow reaching some of the valley locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night. Mid-level clouds over
NE Nevada late tonight will exit into ID and UT shortly afternoon
sunrise, with sunny skies across the CWA into the mid-morning
hours. An upper level low just off the northern CA coast is
sliding south, which will bring an increased southwesterly flow
across NV today. Breezy conditions and patches of blowing dust are
expected across central NV today, with a chance of blowing dust
reaching up into northern NV later this afternoon or early
evening. The approaching low will also bring increasing mid-level
moisture and instability to much of northern NV late this morning
and through the afternoon, with a 10-25% chance of thunderstorms.
Cloud bases are relatively high at around 8-10k feet, with little
if any precipitation expecting in any cells that do develop today.
Best chances for showers and TS today will be across Humboldt
county.

Tonight into Saturday the offshore low will drift south and
slightly east which will increase the SW flow over NV. Main
concerns Saturday afternoon and early evening will be the strong
southerly winds across much of central NV. The High Wind Watch
remains in effect for NW Nye county on Saturday, with increasing
confidence in Wind Advisory level criteria for Southern Lander and
Eureka counties. Blowing dust will be a concern on Saturday
across all of central NV, with dust possibly being blown up to or
north of the I80 corridor by the late afternoon or early evening
hours. Reduced visibilities in blowing dust will be a concern.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected across Humboldt and western
Elko counties on Saturday, and possibly into NW Nye near Gabbs.
Saturday evening as the CA low shifts a little further to the
east, much cooler air will overspread NV with valley rain and
mountain snow. By late Saturday evening and into the overnight
hours some of the higher elevation valley areas of central NV may
see a dusting of snow, which includes much of the Highway 50
corridor where summits may receive up to an inch of snow by
sunrise Sunday.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday.

Deep upper level low continues to move inland Sunday, positioned
over Nevada by Sunday night. This keeps rain and snow showers in
the forecast Sunday with accumulating valley rain and rain/snow
mix in and near Humboldt County during the morning before
dissipating. That said, instability showers are likely across the
forecast area Sunday afternoon and an isolated rumble of thunder
is also possible. Afternoon showers will be generally brief with
graupel likely under any stronger showers. Southwest winds will be
elevated Sunday but will not be as strong as Saturday, remaining
sub advisory levels. Showers and gusty winds dissipate Sunday
night. Cooler temperatures Sunday with daytime highs in the mid
40s to mid 50s and overnight lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

Mostly dry weather on Monday aside from some linger showers being
possible in White Pine County as the upper low moves east.
Northwesterly breezes will also be in place during the day. Next
weather producer moves in Tuesday evening as numerical guidance
continues to indicate a deep low and robust cold front to move
south into Nevada from the PacNW. Probability of precipitation
increases to 20-35% for northern Nevada Tuesday and Wednesday with
lower probabilities for central Nevada, but will ultimately
depend on how far south the low and cold front progress. Strong
cold front with a cold air mass moving in post frontal provide
another opportunity for valley snow to occur, though impacts from
snow will be little to none for the valleys. Cold
north/northwesterly breezes thru mid week with temperatures
decreasing another few degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions continue at all terminals through this
morning. Breezy winds in the afternoon from the S-SW expected to
affect all TAF sites, increasing to 15-20 knots with gusts as high
as 30 to 35 knots at KELY and KTPH. Gusty winds may lead to BLDU
and HZ with reduced VIS at times at KTPH and KELY.

There is also a 15-20% chance of isolated TS with -SHRA for
northern terminals starting 22Z Fri. Potential impacts will
include lightning, virga, and gusty outflow winds up to 40 knots.
Thunderstorm activity weaken along with subsiding winds for
northern terminals around 02Z Sat. Elevated winds will persist for
KTPH and KELY through tonight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Accelerated melting of the mountain snowpack
continues through Saturday as temperatures remain well above
normal. Gusty southerly winds today and Saturday will also
contribute to the increased rate of snowmelt, with elevated and
swift flows on many regional waterways through at least Saturday
night. The Bruneau River is currently in action stage, and may
reach minor flood stage later today or on Saturday. The Owyhee
River near Mountain City is currently very close to action stage,
and will likely reach and remain above action stage late this
evening or early Saturday morning after another day of warm
temperatures.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Northwestern Nye County.

&&

$$

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