Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 222318
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
718 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Brisk north winds Saturday gusting 20-30 mph.

* Impactful storm system Mon-Tue, windy, with showers becoming
  widespread.

* Temperatures below freezing for northern portions of the region
  Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

An upper trough and surface cold front will interact with slightly
elevated precipitable water showing up on nearly saturated
tropospheric soundings to result in widespread light rain tonight,
mostly south of the Ohio River. Isentropic upglide looks fairly weak
and rainfall amounts will be light, peaking in the 0.15-0.25" range.

On Saturday low clouds behind the departing system will linger into
the morning hours, with a few sprinkles possible around sunrise in
Kentucky. Dry air advecting in will scour out the clouds to allow
sunshine Saturday afternoon. Winds will keep a chill in the air,
though, as north breezes of 10 to 20 mph gust to 20 to 30 mph. Given
the morning clouds, brisk north winds, time of year, and statistical
distribution of model temperature guidance, went a bit below NBM for
MaxT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

The long-term begins with clear skies over the Lower Ohio Valley
with surface high pressure extending south out of Canada and upper
ridging overhead, but this will begin to change on Sunday as upper
level cloud cover beings to work in ahead of the next system,
expected to arrive Monday night.

On Sunday, as an upper trough digs south over the Southwest, it will
push a surface low from the High Plains in eastern Colorado towards
the western Great Lakes, where it will arrive on Tuesday. This will
result in your textbook low pressure system, producing a warm front
to the east and a trailing cold front.

On Monday, stiff south winds in the warm sector will likely lift
high temperatures across the CWA above guidance even under partly to
mostly cloudy skies. For now, have temperatures in the upper 60s to
low 70s. This could go warmer as winds are expected to gust to 30-35
mph.

Monday night, temperatures will remain mild as WAA continues. Rain
showers begin as deep layer Gulf of Mexico moisture pushes PWATS to
around 1.3" over southern Kentucky. Slightly lower values will
extend farther north. Model soundings keep things stable during the
event, so expecting a mostly rain event with little to no thunder.
Rain will come to an end Tuesday night as the cold front pushes
east. Widespread rainfall totals have increased slightly to between
around an inch to near 1.60".

Wednesday will see sunny skies behind the front as surface high
pressure drops towards the CWA from the Upper Plains. Northwest
winds ahead of the high will keep CAA in place, limiting
temperatures to the 50s. The high will pass east of the CWA on
Friday. Return flow will help lift highs back into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 718 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Light rain will briefly blossom as it spreads north and east across
central KY between 00-06z this evening. Brief MVFR vis will be
possible in light rain at BWG, LEX, and RGA but prevailing vis is
expected to remain 6+ miles.

A cold front draped NE to SW across central KY this evening will
sink south of the area, with northerly winds becoming gusty in the
wake of the front early Saturday morning. MVFR stratus will also be
common through mid to late morning on Saturday before clouds scatter
out for the afternoon. Breezy winds will linger into Saturday
evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...EBW


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