Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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136 FXUS64 KLZK 081134 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 634 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday Night) Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Isolated to scattered convection continuing early this morning over central/east central sections of the CWA along the I-40 corridor east of Little Rock. These storms had a history of large hail...damaging winds...and even a tornado earlier in the night back towards Hot Springs. Expect the threat for SVR Wx with this convection to continue for the next hr or two...with mainly damaging winds and some large hail possible. Cannot completely rule out any additional tornadoes...but should be brief if they develop. Once this morning convection moves off/dissipates...most areas should be mainly dry into the early afternoon hrs...with maybe some patchy SHRA/isolated TSRA. This will change by late this afternoon and mainly this evening as a line of convection fires along/ahead of a SE moving cold front. While convection will still be possible earlier ahead of the front...a capping inversion should keep most of this at bay. SVR TSRA will become likely with the afternoon/evening convection as it moves SE through the state...due to high forecast ML CAPE of 3k to over 4k J/kg...and impressive SHR . All SVR hazards will be possible...even a few tornadoes as 0-3 and 0-1 SRH of over 200 m2/s2. Very large hail will be the primary threat however...with larger than golf balls probable. Winds over 70 mph will also be possible. Expect the convection to move SE of the CWA by around sunrise Thu morning...with a much calmer day expected for Thu. Some linger precip will still be possible across SRN AR Thu afternoon/evening. Most other areas will remain dry...with much drier air moving into the state. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Calmer conditions are expected through the upcoming weekend with unsettled weather set to return early Monday morning into Tuesday. On Friday, NW upper flow will replace zonal flow over the nations mid-section. This will allow surface high pressure to move towards the state from the Plains. Drier and cooler air will advect into the region with the approach of high pressure. Going through the weekend, modest upper level ridging will move into the Plains/MS Valley. This should bring nice, drier and cooler, weather to AR as high pressure settles in overhead. The upper ridge axis and surface high will begin to depart the region to the E late Sunday. Surface winds will switch back to the S and PoP chances will return by Monday morning into Tuesday as a new upper trough moves across the region. The warmest day during the period should be Thursday, with highs topping out in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Not to surprising the coolest day is expected to be Friday, with high temperatures mainly in the 70s. A slow warming trend will ensue through the weekend into Tuesday. Low temperatures will be refreshing, with readings mainly in the 50s most mornings, especially Friday morning and beyond. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Some MVFR CIGS will be possible early in the period...but expect improving conditions by this afternoon. Chances for convection will return by late this afternoon and mainly this evening as a cold front drops SE into the state. Expect this activity to push SE through the state by the end of this TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 84 62 82 55 / 40 80 10 10 Camden AR 87 67 86 58 / 10 60 20 30 Harrison AR 82 54 76 51 / 40 70 10 0 Hot Springs AR 85 63 84 57 / 30 80 20 20 Little Rock AR 87 67 84 59 / 40 70 10 10 Monticello AR 89 69 87 62 / 10 50 20 30 Mount Ida AR 84 62 84 56 / 40 80 20 10 Mountain Home AR 82 55 78 52 / 40 60 0 0 Newport AR 84 63 82 56 / 40 80 10 10 Pine Bluff AR 87 68 84 60 / 10 60 10 20 Russellville AR 85 60 84 55 / 40 70 10 10 Searcy AR 84 63 83 56 / 40 90 10 10 Stuttgart AR 86 67 83 60 / 30 70 10 20 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...62 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...62