898
FXUS62 KMFL 061130
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
730 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

High pressure continues to dominate the benign and warm weather
pattern across South Florida.  This will keep generally easterly to
southeasterly flow at the surface for today and Tuesday. Upper
levels remain too dry for significant convection, and Monday and
Tuesday are likely to be mainly sunny and dry outside of a few
isolated showers that may impact interior and southwest portions
of the area. A few showers will be possible across eastern areas
during the morning and as the sea breeze pushes inland, the focus
of any convection will shift over the southwest portions of the area
during the evening hours. Rain chances will remain very low overall
without much synoptic forcing and moisture, although can`t totally
rule out a few sprinkles for some isolated areas.

Forecasted afternoon highs will top out in the mid 80s to near 90
degrees across southwestern Florida with highs in the low to mid 80s
across the eastern half of the area thanks to the persistent onshore
flow. The overnight lows will trend in the low to mid 70s along the
east coast while interior locations dip into the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will gradually weaken
and shift southeast by the mid-week period, resulting in initially
easterly low level flow veering more southeasterly while decreasing
in magnitude. At the mid-levels, ridging over the GOM will build
northeastward with the ridge axis largely positioned overhead by
Wed/Thursday. Friday into Saturday the aforementioned ridge will
flatten in response to a northern branch shortwave shifting into
the eastern US, while surface low pressure and its associated cold
front will also move towards the area.

In terms of rain chances, Wednesday-Friday will likely be completely
dry thanks to a ridge building nearly overhead. The next notable rain
chances come ahead of the aforementioned cold front next weekend on
Saturday depending on the progression of the parent low. Given that
the mid-lvl wave is passing well to our north, would expect the boundary
to be frontolytic by the time it reaches SFL, largely maintaining
PoPs only in the 15-30% for Saturday.

As low level flow begins to attain a more southerly and southwesterly
component through the end of the week, temperatures will warm over
the area. Thursday-Saturday will likely be the warmest stretch of
the year thus far with widespread highs in the 90s, with mid 90s
possible (especially over the Interior). Although there should be some
some mixing down of drier air aloft, peak heat indices could also
reach triple digits for the first time in 2024 for portions of the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 727 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Winds
will increase out of the SE around 15z and will be gusty at times
across the east coast terminals this afternoon. Scattered showers
and storms will be possible across the interior this afternoon,
however, most activity should remain away from the terminals. The
exception will be at KAPF, where some isolated shower activity may
develop nearby this afternoon. At KAPF, winds will also become SW
this afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Breezy to gusty easterly winds with southeasterly easterly surges
at time, especially across the Atlantic waters over the next several
days. Isolated rain showers and a few thunderstorms are possible each
day, which could bring locally higher seas and gusty winds in and
around shower/thunderstorm activity although rain chances remain
quite low overall. Seas will generally remain at 2 to 4 feet in
the Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less across the Gulf waters. During
easterly wind surges, conditions could reach Small Craft Exercise
Caution (SCEC) conditions.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Breezy easterly flow continues the high risk of rip currents across
all Southeast Florida beaches at least through the beginning half of
the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            85  75  86  75 /  20  10  30   0
West Kendall     85  73  87  72 /  20  10  30  10
Opa-Locka        85  75  87  74 /  20  10  30   0
Homestead        84  74  85  74 /  20  10  30  10
Fort Lauderdale  83  75  85  75 /  20  10  30  10
N Ft Lauderdale  84  74  86  74 /  20  10  30   0
Pembroke Pines   85  74  86  75 /  20  10  30   0
West Palm Beach  85  72  86  72 /  10  10  20   0
Boca Raton       84  74  85  73 /  20  10  30  10
Naples           87  72  87  74 /  20  20  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rizzuto
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...CWC