881
FXUS62 KMFL 140610
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
210 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

A mid-level disturbance developing over the Midwestern United States
is producing perturbations that move from the western Gulf into the
peninsula of Florida through a portion of the short term. The warm
front will continue its retreat northward allowing for the region to
remain in this hot and unsettled pattern through mid-week.

While the more widespread convective focus may remain north of
southern Florida, sea breeze collisions will spur late
afternoon/evening storms that could be stout with some strong to
severe storms not out of the question due to cold air aloft and
surface-based instability which could at times overcome whatever
inhibition could remain. 500 mb temperatures will remain in the -10
to -8 deg C range through a good portion of the period and when
favorable lapse rates materialize within the hail growth zone, there
could be storms capable of producing large hail, frequent to
excessive lightning, and locally damaging wind gusts. The localized
threat of tornadic activity, such as funnel clouds, around boundary
collisions is also something to be monitored.

Outside of the storms, temperatures will continue to be stifling
with a warming trend underway. Heat index values will top the triple
digits with the potential for Heat Advisories becoming necessary as
early as Wednesday. As the mid-level low travels eastward, the
surface cold front will move across the panhandle and enter the
peninsula of Florida on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

A frontal boundary could enter south central Florida by Thursday,
briefly allowing a window for some increased rain chances but the
weak front lacks the support for more widespread activity which
could provide more substantial relief from the heat. Temperatures
aloft will cool to around -9 to -10C on Wednesday into Thursday
which could support an isolated strong storm or two.

The main story through this forecast period will be the potential
for hazardous heat which will linger into the weekend. Most of South
Florida could experience heat necessitating at least a Heat Advisory
through Saturday and this potential will be monitored through the
week. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be in the 90s area-
wide each afternoon. Lower to mid 90s will be more likely for
coastal areas with portions of interior South Florida potentially
approaching the upper 90s or low 100s. Overnight low temperatures
along the east coast metro mid to late week could struggle to fall
below 80 degrees and even portions of the Naples metro may not fall
below the upper 70s. This could lead to a period of several days
where relentless sunshine, building heat, and a lack of relief
overnight could lead to escalating heat illness risk.

By the weekend, the mid-level low begins to exit into the Atlantic
off the Mid-Atlantic states with the potential for a southward
advancement of the associated front. If the front is able to move
into the area, it could provide a small bit of relief from the heat.
If the front stalls to the north, the excessive heat risk could
linger through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period,
although some MVFR cigs will be possible early this morning over
the northern east coast terminals. SErly winds will remain around
10kts this morning, becoming more southerly with gusts 20-25kts
expected once again during the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 201 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

A southeasterly to southerly wind flow will become southwesterly
as the next cold front approaches on Wednesday. Afternoon and
evening sea breeze storms will still be possible, with a focus
around Lake Okeechobee. Temperatures will be unseasonably hot
though the breeze could offer some relief in the shade.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 201 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

The wind flow will become more southerly to southwesterly today
into Wednesday. Due to the combination of low tide time this
morning and the last several days of the persistent southeast
winds, the high risk of rip currents along the Atlantic beaches
will continue through at least this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  80  95  80 /  10  10  30  20
West Kendall     93  78  97  76 /  10   0  20  20
Opa-Locka        93  79  97  78 /  10  10  30  20
Homestead        91  79  95  78 /  10  10  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  90  80  94  79 /  20  10  40  30
N Ft Lauderdale  91  80  95  79 /  20  10  40  20
Pembroke Pines   95  80  99  79 /  10  10  30  20
West Palm Beach  92  78  96  76 /  30  10  50  30
Boca Raton       92  79  97  78 /  20  10  40  30
Naples           92  79  91  78 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...Culver