733
FXUS62 KMHX 300559
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
159 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored offshore through mid week. A
cold front will impact the area late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
As of 1915 Monday...No changes required to the near term.

Previous Disco as of 300 PM Mon...Very quiet weather pattern in
place over the eastern CONUS this afternoon. Mid- level ridge
remains overhead today as high pressure centered over the
Atlantic extends onshore. This pattern will remain in place
tonight, with continued southwesterly flow keeping overnight
temperatures mild under clear skies - upper 50s to low 60s.
Guidance has backed off a bit on low stratus potential
overnight, with now only the NAM and ARW advertising such
development. Both of these models have a history of being too
aggressive in showing low stratus in south to southwesterly
flow, and given the lack of support from any other guidance
(including a reliable GFS LAMP) did not reflect this in the
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Upper ridge will begin to break down
tomorrow as a strengthening shortwave trough, currently digging
into eastern Texas, shifts eastward. Attendant surface low
pressure/trough will also move across the southeastern CONUS,
bringing unsettled weather ahead of it. Eastern NC will remain
under the influence of the ridge into Tuesday evening, keeping
conditions dry but with increasing high clouds as upper level
moisture increases. The minority of guidance quickest with the
surface trough/low does show some isolated shower activity
impacting the coastal plain around sunset tomorrow, but
probability of this is too low (under 10%) to include
mentionable PoPs. Temperatures will be a degree or two warmer
than today, in the low to mid 80s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Low to mid 80s for the rest of the week

- Best rain chances Wednesday and then this weekend

FORECAST DETAILS

Dry weather should prevail Tuesday with the system not making
its way to ENC until Wednesday. With this disturbance expected
to pass during Wednesday`s peak heating, showers and
thunderstorms are possible across the area (30-55% chance).
Although thunderstorms are possible, severe storms are less
likely as very little shear is expected.

Thursday has trended drier for showers and thunderstorms with
PoPs below slight chance. Temperatures will remain high with
upper 80s inland to mid to upper 70s along the coast.

A little more moisture advection Saturday and Sunday with both
the Bermuda High and an approaching frontal system from the west
contributing to the increase in precipitable water. Increasing
chances for rain and thunderstorms (35-40%) by Saturday
afternoon and then lingering into Sunday as the front moves into
the region. Temperatures slightly cooler both days but still
well above normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Wednesday/...

As of 145 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Sub VFR conditions possible overnight (30-50% chance)

FORECAST DETAILS

The main forecast challenge over the next 6-8 hours will be the
potential for BR/FG/low stratus. With high pressure offshore to
the southeast of Eastern NC, a moistening low-level flow is
ongoing from the Atlantic into the Carolinas. Within this flow,
there is evidence on satellite imagery of some attempt at FG or
stratus from coastal SC north into SE NC. While moisture
advection overnight is expected to be stronger than this time 24
hrs ago, it`s still unclear whether or not the depth of
moisture will be sufficient for impactful sub- VFR conditions or
not. For now, I`ve kept the TAFs as-is, with no changes to the
00z TAFs (regarding the fog/stratus potential). Stay tuned for
amendments if needed.

Any fog or stratus that develops is expected to mix out with
daytime heating on Tuesday. During the day Tuesday, gusty S to
SW winds up to ~20kt are likely with daytime mixing and the
passage of the seabreeze. With increasing moisture, I expect
more cumulus with the seabreeze today, but the risk of SHRA
still appears low (<10% chance). Late Tuesday evening, continued
moisture advection is expected to lead to the development of
mid-level CIGs ahead of an upper level wave approaching from the
west. There will be a chance of SHRA and TSRA with this wave,
but not until after the current 06z TAF cycle.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 330 PM Monday...Pred VFR expected through the period. An
approaching disturbance will bring some chances for
precipitation Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 310 PM Tuesday...Quiet boating conditions in place this
afternoon over area waters as high pressure remains anchored to
our southeast. Regional observations show southwesterly winds of
10-15 kt with seas averaging 3 feet with periods of 10-11
seconds. Little change in these conditions are expected through
the period. Like yesterday, an increase in winds across the
northern waters and sounds with a tightening thermal gradient is
expected and a few spotty gusts to 25 kt are possible. This is
not expected to last long enough to warrant SCA. A similar
pattern is expected tomorrow, although for a broader swath of
near-shore waters.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Good boating conditions expected early this week

FORECAST DETAILS

High pressure will shift offshore early this week, with inland
troughing developing in the lee of the Appalachians. Winds will
steadily increase early next week with southwesterly flow of
10-20kt common. Seas of 3-5 ft will be common through early next
week, setting up good boating conditions for several days.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...RM/OJC
MARINE...MS/OJC