Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 271540
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1140 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach the area from the west today
eventually stalling over ENC this evening. A coastal low will then
impact the area tonight into Friday bringing inclement weather to
the area. High pressure then builds in from the south over the
weekend with another frontal passage likely early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 1115 AM Wednesday...

A weak area of low pressure is centered near Columbia, SC at
this time, and is along a slow-moving frontal boundary that
stretches SW to NE from southern GA to central VA. A warm front
extends east across coastal SC, and on out into the Atlantic.

North of the warm front, a moist easterly flow off the Atlantic
is helping keep low clouds and cooler air in place. Through the
afternoon, the surface low and warm front won`t move much, and
this will tend to keep temps on the cooler side thanks to the
continued easterly flow. With this in mind, I`ve lowered highs
for today by several degrees. Of note, across the NRN OBX, highs
may struggle to get out of the 40s.

Precip-wise, a widespread area of rain and embedded
thunderstorms is ongoing from the surface low north into central
NC, including far western section of ENC, where low-mid level
convergence and moisture is maximized. The broad frontal zone
mentioned above won`t move much today, and for this reason, the
area of rain and thunderstorms probably won`t make significant
progression east, either. The previous forecast handled this
progression well, so no changes are needed on the precip side.
The only change was to introduce a mention of thunderstorms
earlier than forecast as elevated instability has been
supporting some weak thunderstorms west of HWY 17 already.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 445 AM Wednesday...Stalled boundary which will spawn a
coastal low is forecast to bring inclement weather Wednesday
evening into Thursday.

Upper level trough in the Plains will continue to push E`wards
into Thu becoming negatively tilted as it approaches the Eastern
Seaboard. A second and stronger mid level shortwave will deepen
as it approaches the area tonight into Thursday as it rounds
the base of this trough and this will be the main weather
feature in the period.

At the surface, a stalled boundary enters the CWA this evening
while a low pressure system develops along the stalling boundary
in the Gulf of Mexico. This low begins to track NE`wards along
the SC/NC coast late Wed night quickly deepening before exiting
off to the north and east Thu night. Placement and track of this
low have come into better focus, guidance suggesting a track
either directly along or just offshore the Crystal coast/SOBX.
As this low tracks NE`wards PWAT`s will surge across the area
bringing ample moisture. Still not expecting much in the way of
instability across ENC given the expected track which would
place the area in the cool sector of the storm but cannot
completely dismiss a rumble of thunder or two primarily along
the SW`rn zones this evening. The bigger concern for tonight
and Thurs will be the chance for heavy rain as ample moisture
will combine with strong lift to promote a heavy rain and a
flash flooding threat. Widespread 2-4 inches with localized
totals of 6" are possible for an area now under a Flood Watch
for 0Z Thursday to 0Z Friday. See HYDROLOGY section for more
information. Low leaves the region Thursday night, leaving high
winds and dangerous marine conditions in its wake. See COASTAL
FLOODING section for more information on coastal flooding
concerns from the stronger winds.

Lows tonight will be in the mid 50s, moderated by the increased
cloud cover and slight WAA. Highs Thursday will be cooler as we
end up on the cold side of the departing low, mid 50s for the
coastal plain and low 60s for beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 AM Wed... Coastal low will quickly exit off to the north
and east Thursday night with high pressure building in from the
south on Friday bringing much quieter weather to Eastern North
Carolina through the weekend. Next potential frontal system begins
to near the area early to mid week next week.

Thurs night through Fri... Negatively tilted upper level trough
and deepening mid level shortwave will be overhead to start the
period but will quickly exit off to the north and east with
upper level zonal flow beginning to set up across the region on
Friday as the trough departs. AT the surface low pressure system
that had brought inclement weather through much of the day
Thursday will be located just offshore near Cape Hatteras and
will be pushing further north and east while strengthening as
the evening progresses. Any leftover rainfall associated with
this low will finally end from west to east through THursday
night thus ending our heavy rainfall threat with just the
potential for an additional 0.1-0.25 inches of rain to fall
overnight Thursday, WInds will still remain elevated overall
across ENC with NW`rly winds gusting to 20-30 mph across our
inland zones and 30-45 mph across the coast and OBX overnight as
the gradient tightens between the deepening low and encroaching
high. As we get into Friday low pressure continues to pull
further away from ENC while high pressure builds in from the
south. THis will keep things dry and mo clear across the region
while winds gradually ease and become W`rly Fri afternoon. Low
temps Thurs night get down into the 40s while high temps on Fri
get into the low to mid 60s as W`rly downslope flow offsets any
ongoing CAA behind the departing low.

This weekend... Dry weather remains across the FA through this
weekend as upper and surface ridging builds over the area with the
surface ridge quickly pushing off the coast and into the Sargasso
Sea on Sun. After some partly cloudy skies across the area on Sat,
expect increasing cloud cover late Sunday as a weak mid level
shortwave ridges along the boundary of the upper level ridge
promoting some weak lift. The GFS does hint at the potential for
some isolated shower activity to develop across ENC on SUn but
given that has been the outlier model so far with respect to
precip potential kept PoP`s below mentionable through the
weekend. Either way looks to be a pleasant weekend overall with
highs getting into the 70s to near 80 inland and into the 60s
to near 70 along the OBX. Lows through this time period increase
each night as well going from the 40s Sat to the 50s on Sun

Monday into midweek next week... Frontal boundary then begins to
approach the area on Mon and eventually makes its way into ENC
closer to mid week next week. This will bring our next chance
for precip to the area with partly to mo cloudy skies expected
from Mon on. Temps generally remain above avg through this time
period.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 730 AM Wednesday...IFR conditions are persisting across
TAF terminals. A combination of the high pressure retreating and
daytime mixing should help improve flight conditions to MVFR/IFR
later this morning, but sub-VFR conditions will return for the
evening through tonight as the stalled boundary approaches from
the west. Periods of heavy rain are anticipated overnight into
Thursday morning along the stalled boundary, bringing down
visibilities with it.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 4 AM Wed... We likely start the period out with sub-VFR
conditions heavy rain and reduced vis remain over Enc Thursday
morning and afternoon as a deepening low gradually departs the
area to the north and east Thurs night. Lowest ceilings and vis
will be found across the OBX to start with slightly higher
ceilings and vis the further west you go. Ceilings and vis then
rapidly improve from west to east overnight Thurs into Fri as
the low exits the area. However, gusty NW`rly winds overnight
Thurs will become W`rly on Fri while gradually easing. VFR
conditions are then expected Fri night through the end of the
period.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 915 AM Wednesday...

Webcams along the coast of the Outer Banks all show low to very
low visibilities over nearby waters (1SM or less). With light
winds, it`s likely that reduced visibilities will last for at
least a few more hours before easterly winds increase. In light
of this, I have issued a Marine Dense Fog Advisory through 2pm
for the coastal waters north of Ocracoke Inlet, the Pamlico
Sound, and the northern rivers/sounds.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...N/NE winds 5-10 kt across the waters this
morning, with seas 4-7 ft south of Ocracoke and 5-10 ft/13-14
sec north. Stubborn offshore low pressure is pushing ESE, with
seas slowly subsiding.Winds will become E-SE 5-10 kt Wed. Seas
will subside to 4-7 ft Wed afternoon, and 3-6 ft Wednesday
night. SCAs continue for the coastal waters. Patchy dense fog
will be possible across the northern waters and sounds for the
next couple hours.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 425 AM Wed... Marine conditions will rapidly deteriorate
on Thursday as a coastal low tracks NE`wards and deepens Thu
afternoon and evening. 10-15 kt winds with 4-6 ft seas will be
found across our waters with winds becoming N-NW`rly behind the
departing coastal low and increasing rapidly with widespread
20-30 kt winds with 25-40 kt gusts found across the inland
sounds and rivers Thu afternoon and evening with 25-35 kt winds
with 40-45 kt gusts found across our coastal waters. As a result
have added in SCA headlines for the rest of the inland sounds
and rivers that currently do not have a gale watch up and left
the current gale watches alone with the expectation of upgrading
these headlines later today. Dangerous marine conditions then
persist through the night and into Fri morning before quickly
easing from west to east as the deepening low departs and high
pressure ridging builds overhead allowing winds to fall to 10-15
kts coming from the W by Fri afternoon. This will allow gales
to end, however SCA`s may linger into the weekend especially
across our coastal waters as seas will remain elevated. WInds
will then generally remain around 10-20 kts through the weekend
and into early next week.

Widespread 4-6 ft seas will be noted Thu morning as light winds
persist. However, this is short lived as seas quickly build
back up closer to 5-8 ft Thu afternoon and 7-11 ft Thu night as
strong winds bring increased wave action. Elevated seas then
persist through Friday before seas gradually fall back closer to
4-6 ft over the weekend with seas then falling to 3-5 ft by
early next week as the winds ease.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 500 AM Wednesday...Heavy rainfall will move into the
region Wednesday evening, stalling over the coastal plain
through the evening into the night, before coastal low forming
along stalled boundary sweeps just offshore of the Crystal
Coast/SOBX. A swath of widespread 2-4" and isolated 6" will
exist along an SW- NE oriented axis spanning from Duplin/Onslow
Cos. to Martin/Washington Co where the stalled boundary will
have the longest residence time. Heavy showers will be moving
from south to north along this boundary. A Flood Watch has been
issued for 8PM Wednesday to 8PM Thursday with this update. OBX
and inner banks will be spared from the highest precip totals as
the low sweeps through before the stalled boundary has a chance
to sit over eastern portions of the CWA. Rainfall will be heavy
and flash flooding will be possible during the morning commute
along hwy 17. WPC has upgraded this area to a slight
risk for excessive rainfall for this timeframe further hinting
at the possibility for some localized flash flooding across ENC
Wed night into Thurs.

Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks,
streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding
may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 530 AM Wed... Overall did not make any changes to the current
high surf and coastal flood advisories as everything appears to be
tracking well. Though strong NE`rly long period swell has begun to
gradually ease across the area, still expecting a threat for at
least some minor ocean overwash particularly across areas with
compromised dune structures from Pea Island south into the
north end of Ocracoke this morning during the next high tide
cycle which will be around 930AM today. NC 12 remains closed per
NCDOT on the northern end of Ocracoke Island due to ocean
overwash and dangerous driving conditions. Hatteras to Ocracoke
ferry service remains suspended until further notice.

High Surf Advisories continue from Cape Lookout north due to large,
breaking waves and wave runup. Advisories will run through this
mornings high tide as persistent northerly fetch funnels large long-
period 12-13 sec swell along the beaches with surf zone seas
reaching up to 4-7 feet, higher north of Hatteras 6-9 ft.

We are still expecting a threat for strong winds and the
potential for some minor coastal flooding Thursday night into
Friday morning across soundside portions of the Outer Banks as a
coastal low impacts the area. Main threat would occur close to
the high tide cycles Thursday night and Friday morning primarily
near any compromised dune structures from South of Oregon Inlet
to Ocracoke Island. NC 12 will remain closed through this
period given this threat. If the threat continues to persists additional
coastal flood products will likely be issued.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday
     evening for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-
     198-199-203>205.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ131-
     135-150-152-154-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to noon EDT Friday for
     AMZ131-230-231.
     Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to 7 AM EDT Friday for
     AMZ136-137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ150-152-
     154.
     Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for
     AMZ150.
     Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon
     for AMZ152-154.
     Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...RM/RCF/RJ
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX


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