439
FXUS64 KOHX 021140
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
640 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

It`s a quiet night across Middle Tennessee with a few high clouds
passing through. It will be a warm day across the area as
southerly low level flow continues. Clouds will begin to thicken
this evening ahead of a dampening shortwave ejecting out of the
Arklatex region. A few showers will be possible prior to midnight
west of I-65 but the better rain chances will be closer to dawn
and into Friday morning. There may be a brief reprieve late Friday
morning but another wave will be riding the heels of the first.
More showers and storms will be around Friday afternoon and
persist into Saturday. MUCAPE values Friday afternoon will be
around 1500 J/kg but effective bulk shear will be low at 10-15
kts so no organized severe threat is anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Showers and storms will continue Friday night and even into
Saturday morning. Behind the shortwave the upper flow continues to
be quasi-zonal with more weak disturbances. More scattered showers
and storms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening. Sunday
morning may be dry but yet another wave will approach the area
Sunday afternoon/evening with more scattered showers and storms.
The quasi-zonal flow will continue next week with more waves of
showers and storms. MUCAPE values each afternoon will be in the
1000-1500 J/kg range but effective bulk shear will stay on the low
side generally between 10-20 kts so no organized severe threats
are anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

As high pressure continues to slide off to the east, we can expect
one more day of VFR wx before the next active weather system
begins to affect Middle Tennessee. Look for mainly light showers
to begin developing from west to east after 06Z tonight, with
ceilings eventually dropping below 1 kft except along the
Cumberland Plateau, which likely won`t see any restrictions until
after 12Z tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      88  66  79  65 /   0  60  80  70
Clarksville    87  65  76  63 /   0  60  80  50
Crossville     83  62  76  61 /   0  30  70  70
Columbia       87  65  79  63 /   0  70  80  70
Cookeville     84  64  76  62 /   0  40  70  80
Jamestown      85  62  77  61 /   0  20  70  80
Lawrenceburg   85  65  78  63 /   0  60  80  70
Murfreesboro   88  65  79  63 /   0  60  70  70
Waverly        88  64  76  62 /   0  70  80  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Rose