Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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672 FXUS64 KOHX 020518 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1218 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 805 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Another warm evening across the midstate with current temperatures in the upper 60s to 70s. Dewpoints remaining on the lower side in the upper 50s to mid 60s, which is making it feel fairly comfortable humidity wise. Increasing clouds and slightly stronger BL winds versus last night should keep lows up a few degrees, with most locations only falling into the upper 50s to low 60s. This should also keep any fog development patchy. Forecast has all of this covered well so only made minor tweaks. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Due to continuance of ridging influences surface and aloft, dry conditions with just some passing clouds here and there will be in store for mid state region through Thursday afternoon. With a predominance of lower level atmospheric southerly flow, unseasonably warm temperatures are expected to continue. Lows tonight will be seasonably mild ranging upper 50s to lower 60s, mid 50s Cumberland Plateau Region. Highs on Thursday might even be a degree or two warmer than today with highs mid to upper 80s, maybe even approaching in a few spots the 90 degree mark across the Nashville Metro Area, with lower 80s across Cumberland Plateau Region. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 A more active and unsettled weather pattern will be in store for our area during the long term forecast period. Starting from the mid evening hours on Thursday night, mainly scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will push west to east across mid state region as southwesterly upper level flow begins to develop and within that flow a pronounced shortwave passage with a surface cold front pushing into the mid MS River Valley Region. Surface front will push into and move northwest to southeast across our area on Friday with another front approaching the area just after sunrise on Sunday but it will eventually push as a warm front northeastward as first part of next work week progresses. Quasi zonal flow aloft will persist through much of upcoming weekend with a more pronounced upper level shortwave passage on Sunday night with a return to at least quasi southwesterly flow as next work week progresses. This will bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms to our area, with best chances of rainfall Friday Night into Saturday with at least isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm chances persisting through first part of next work week. Total rainfall amounts look to range from around one inch to around two inches of rainfall Thursday night through next Wednesday. A strong storm or two is not out of the question, but organized severe weather potential is not expected. After initially cooler temperatures over the weekend, temperatures will once again warm to above seasonal normal values by mid portion of next work week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 CKV/BNA/MQY will be VFR for the taf period. Fog cannot be ruled out at SRB/CSV through dawn but confidence is not high. Showers could impact CKV after 03/00z so VCSH was included in the taf. Southerly winds will increase to around 10 kts by late morning and decrease below 5 kts after 03/00z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 88 66 79 65 / 0 80 80 80 Clarksville 87 65 77 63 / 0 90 80 60 Crossville 82 61 74 60 / 0 70 80 80 Columbia 87 64 79 63 / 0 80 80 70 Cookeville 84 64 75 62 / 0 70 80 80 Jamestown 85 62 75 60 / 0 60 80 80 Lawrenceburg 86 64 78 64 / 0 80 80 70 Murfreesboro 88 64 79 63 / 0 80 80 80 Waverly 87 64 77 63 / 0 80 80 60 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Shamburger SHORT TERM...JB Wright LONG TERM....JB Wright AVIATION.....Reagan