Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
000
FXUS64 KOUN 110358
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1058 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024
Rain chances will decrease rather quickly during the late afternoon
and early evening, as an upper level low begins to move east of the
area. Until then, light to moderate rain will continue, especially
across south central and southeast Oklahoma. Clouds have cleared
some across western Oklahoma and northern Texas, while overcast
conditions remain over the eastern half of Oklahoma. The rest of
the area will see clearing especially from the mid evening into the
overnight hours.
Mixing under a mainly clear sky early Thursday, will result in
rather gusty northwest winds. The wind should subside some during
the afternoon as transport winds decrease. Gridded data suggest a
few hours of elevated fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon
across the northern third of Oklahoma. This area certainly missed
out on the most recent rainfall, but decreasing winds in the
afternoon should help mitigate rather low afternoon humidity.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024
Surface high pressure will be centered over parts of eastern
Texas early Thursday evening, and will build slowly eastward
overnight. With a clear sky and light wind, temperatures will
fall into the 40s overnight with a few upper 30s possible across
the eastern third of Oklahoma.
The upper flow aloft will transition from northwest to westerly on
Friday, as a broad mid-level ridge builds over the central U.S. A
southerly surface wind will also return and increase throughout
the day. This will result in a modest return of near-surface
moisture.
With embedded disturbances moving through southwest flow
over the weekend, variable high clouds appear likely. Better flow
over the western Gulf will also promote better theta-e advection,
especially Sunday. Afternoon temperatures Sunday are also
expected to very warm with temperatures running about 15 to 20
degrees above average. This will likely be the first day of heat
and humidity for 2024, so be sure to remain hydrated.
After a warm and dry weekend, the focus will quickly turn to the
risk of severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and night. Naturally,
there are some timing differences regarding how quickly a trough
will lift northeast across the southern and central Plains on
Monday. At this time, will go with the idea of a dryline just west
of the Oklahoma/Texas border by late afternoon with moderate
boundary layer instability east of the dryline. A little unsure if
a few storms can develop initially, before large scale ascent
results in upscale growth. Regardless, it certainly appears
severe storms are likely and may impact at least the western half
of Oklahoma and western north Texas.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024
Winds have calmed down this evening within a col in the pressure
gradient. This will soon be replaced by a renewed push of
northwesterly winds of about 10 knots. There is some chance for
wind shear to approach 40 knots from the north around sunrise near
KPNC, but the window is limited spatiotemporally. Tomorrow
morning, strong mixing will increase surface wind magnitudes from
the north-northwest, which will last until sunset. VFR conditions
are expected.
Meister
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 48 66 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 44 69 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 47 70 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 42 68 42 82 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 47 66 39 77 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 50 70 46 78 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...04