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000
FXUS65 KPUB 200953
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
353 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Round 1 of showers is moving across the region early this
   AM, 2nd round will move across late this afternoon/evening,
   ending late this evening.

 - Isolated showers possible Sunday through Wednesday, though
   mostly dry conditions expected at this time.

 - Dynamic pattern develops late next week, with increasing
   precipitation chances for most.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 350 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Currently...

A few bands of showers were noted stretching WSW-ENE across the
region. Otherwise, lots of clouds were note over the region, with a
solid low overcast over the plains. Temps across the plains were
around freezing across N El Paso county while over the remainder of
the plains temps were in the 30s to L40s. The San Luis Valley was
around low 40F. Mtns were generally in the 20s and 30s. A weak but
persistent upslope flow was noted over the plains, and easterlies
have pushed into the SLV.

Today and Tonight...

Round 1 of precip was over the region as I write and these bands of
showers should continue to progress east, with the brunt of the
activity exiting the fcst area by mid to late morning. Decreasing
clouds is indicated over nearly all of te plains by early afternoon,
with the exception being parts of El Paso county, and would expect at
least some sun (if not lots of sun) over a good part of the plains
by afternoon. Clouds over the mtns will be more mid to high level
and it will remain warm over the interior valleys this afternoon.

Temps today will be warmest over the SLV and the western sections of
the eastern plains, typically in the greater southern I-25 corridor
region. Expect max temps around 60 over the Southern I-25 corridor
region, and 40s most other areas of the plains. U40s will be noted
over the N El Paso county region. The SLV will be the warmest area
once again today with M60s. The Upper Ark Rvr valley will be in the
50s. mtns 40s and 50s.

By later this afternoon a 2nd disturbance will push east out of the
mtns and this system will be more convective. I do expect we will
see quite a few weak TSRAs this afternoon and early evening with the
brunt of the activity over the southern half of the higher
elevations (San Juans/S mtns/S I-25 corridor region). Otherwise
showers will push out of the higher terrain by mid to late afternoon
and push eastward across the plains during the late afternoon and
evening time period. Showers should be ending by midnight. May see
some fog in some locations over the plains tonight with lighter winds
and high RH values.

Min temps tonight will be pretty uniform over the region with 30s
most plains and valleys and 20s mtns.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Sunday - Wednesday: The end of the weekend and through the first
half of next week will bring some active to south central and
southeastern Colorado, but overall relatively quiet conditions are
anticipated. Starting Sunday, flow will become predominantly
westerly, though waves within the overall flow will occasionally
influence the region. Given no major forcing, mostly dry conditions
are expected. With that said though, the westerly flow may help
isolated light showers to blossom along the mountains each day,
especially when a wave passes over/near the area. As for lower
elevations, it will come down to how the waves influence the region,
particularly when they shove cold fronts southward, which at this
time is late Monday into early Tuesday, and another cold front surge
mid Tuesday into early Wednesday. These cold fronts may help
initiate additional isolated showers across the lower elevations
during the aforementioned timeframe. Looking at temperatures, an
overall warming trend to above seasonal values is expected. Sunday,
Monday, and Wednesday will be the warmest days, with Tuesday falling
in temperatures thanks to the cold front passages.

Thursday - Friday: For the end of next week, an uptick in active
weather is expected for south central and southeastern Colorado.
Ensemble model guidance are in good agreement about developing a
troughing pattern over the region. This pattern would increase
precipitation chances for much of the region, especially the
mountains. With that all said though, there are signals that the
plains may miss out on much of the precipitation with this dynamic
pattern and become dry slotted, which is evident in ensemble QPF
fields. This troughing pattern is still a handful of days out
though, and details will need to be ironed out in the coming days.
As for temperatures, Thursday will be the warmest day before any
front can be pushes southward, with Friday expected to be cooler
post cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

COS...

Lots of clouds through the fcst period. Cigs will be low with IFR
likely this AM and Tomorrow morning, and MVFR today and this
evening. Best chance of clouds lifting somewhat will be during the
18Z-01Z time period later this afternoon. Showers will be possible
this AM and once again late this afternoon and evening, with precip
ending by mid evening. Any snow early this AM will be light and will
not accumulate.

KPUB...

low clouds this AM and tomorrow morning, otherwise we should see
some clearing by late morning lasting into late afternoon. Another
round of showers will move across late this afternoon and evening.

KALS...

VFR likely through the period. Some light showers cant be ruled out,
especially early this AM and later this afternoon and early evening.
A rumble of thunder cant be rule out later today.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...HODANISH