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000
FXUS61 KRLX 201442
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1042 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry this weekend, then slowly warming through Tuesday
ahead of another cold front that brings wet weather back to the
area Tuesday night. Widespread frost possible Monday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM Saturday...

Made minor modifications to cloud cover over the next several
hours across far southern WV and southwest VA, where BKN-OVC
mid/upper level clouds have lingered longer than originally
anticipated. Otherwise, the forecast largely remains on track.

Do anticipate RH values dipping into the mid 20s to low 30s
across much of the forecast area this afternoon amid breezy
conditions at times. Given prior rainfall across the area over
the past few days, the only real area of concern in terms of
elevated fire danger would be across extreme southern OH and far
northeast Kentucky. However, given progressive green up across
the region and marginal fuel moisture this afternoon, do not
anticipate needing a SPS for the aforementioned areas.

As of 608 AM Saturday...

Satellite imagery shows clear skies spreading from west to east
early this morning. Previous forecast remains on track.

As of 230 AM Saturday...

Surface high pressure builds in from the west, pushing remnants
light showers east of the Appalachians this morning. Much
fresh/colder air filters in, bringing plenty of sunshine and
pleasant temperatures for Saturday, generally in the 60s across
the lowlands, ranging to the upper 40s higher elevations.

With brief afternoon gusty winds, mixing will drop relative humidity
values into the upper 20s to lower 30s areawide. RHs recovers to
over 50 percent after midnight tonight.

For tonight, a relaxed pressure gradient provides light to calm
winds. Models suggest cold air in place with the minus 5C line
arriving to our northern sections tonight. Combined with mostly
clear skies, radiational cooling effects could drop temperatures
into the mid to lower 30s across the area. This will promote
patchy frost mainly across the northern lowlands late tonight
into Sunday morning. However, a southern stream mid-level
shortwave lifts northeast across northeast KY and southern WV,
late tonight bringing abundant clouds for these areas. These
clouds may keep areas of frost to become widespread, or even to
develop. Will continue to mention in HWO as confidence runs low
at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Saturday...

Quiet conditions are expected through the balance of the weekend
into early next week as surface high pressure slowly spreads east
across the middle of the country whilst Canadian Arctic high
pressure largely respects the border.

Monday morning looks to be the coolest of this stretch with
widespread frost and some patchy freeze possible where the growing
season is open.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 220 AM Saturday...

High pressure shifts off to the east Monday putting the region back
into southwesterly flow Tuesday ahead of an approaching northern
stream low rising the baroclinic zone along the Canadian border
slated to arrive in the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday night. This should
yield a brief return to mild conditions with daytime highs across
the lower elevations in the upper 60s to lower 70s amid a modest
uptick in precipitable water to around 3/4s of an inch. A cold front
associated with the aforementioned low will drag across the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning yielding around a third to half
of an inch of rainfall averaged across the basin. Instability looks
rather meager, and coupled with overnight timing will cap any
chances for convection at slight.

Cooler northwesterly flow over Lake Erie in the wake of cold frontal
passage Wednesday likely yields at least some lake enhanced moisture
plume feeding into the region during the day with fairly steep low
level lapse rates through 5000 ft. Could see some low topped showers
with this activity at least through Wednesday afternoon.

With the cool and relatively dry air in place Thursday morning,
could see some additional patchy frost across the north. The balance
of the work week appears quiet with the next chance for
precipitation looming for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 607 AM Saturday...

Satellite imagery shows clearing spreading from west to east
with widespread VFR conditions across the lowlands. MVFR
ceilings could still be possible at BKW and EKN during the early
morning hours, but will quickly become VFR under clear skies.

Afternoon breezes may produce brief gusty winds. Winds will
stay out of the northwest and pick up in intensity slightly for
the afternoon where gusts in the low 20`s will be possible
through the afternoon at most, if not all sites.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR is expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JP/GW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...ARJ