554
FXUS63 KSGF 131736
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1236 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and t-storms developing early this morning with
  increasing coverage as the front moves through. A few strong
  storms possible south of I-44. Low flooding threat.

- Rain possible all day today; precipitation ending west to east
  Tuesday morning. Dry Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Additional precipitation possible late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Upper level low pressure continues to move our way this morning, and
showers can be see developing in eastern Kansas and Oklahoma. The
low is estimated to be over central Kansas as of 2 a.m.
Precipitation is expected to cross over into Missouri around sunrise
with some low-end chances for scattered showers developing out ahead
of the main front with energy and moisture being forced up through
AR. CAMs are showing very little CAPE in the Ozarks around this
time, but as the day progresses and the system moves through,
additional destabilization is expected with MUCAPE rising to 1000-
1500 J/kg by late afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has
extended the Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe thunderstorms up to and
south of I-44 due to the potential for this instability to be
coincident with deep layer shear of 30-40 kts, though these
parameters are not consistent or strong enough to pose a
widespread severe threat. A few strong storms will be possible
in the evening, capable of hail up to 1 inch and wind gusts up
to 60 mph.

HREF 24hr LPMM highlighting 0.5-1.5" of rain for the majority of the
Ozarks with localized pockets of 2-3" possible. Due to recent rains
saturating soils, we may see ponding and rises in creeks, but
widespread flooding is not expected. The Weather Prediction Center
has included the Ozarks in a Marginal Risk (1/4) for excessive
rainfall, meaning that there is at least a 5% risk of rainfall
exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of any point. This
highlights the highly localized nature of the flooding risk.

High temperatures today will be in the low to mid 70s. Spotty
showers continue overnight as the backside of the low pushes in
forcing from the north. These will gradually end west to east
Tuesday morning with clearing skies in the afternoon. Lows tonight
in the mid to high 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

We will get a short stretch of dry time Tuesday night into
Wednesday, but a trough is expected to arrive Wednesday night that
forces precipitation through at least Friday. This activity doesn`t
look severe at this time, but the WPC has included the area in
another Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall Thursday into Friday
morning.

5 wave charts are showing a quite meridional pattern over the next
two weeks, so more rain may be on the way after this week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Additional scattered showers and storms are possible this
afternoon and evening. Rain should clear out late this evening
into tonight, but low level moisture will increase and lead to
MVFR to IFR ceilings by late tonight. Additional scattered
showers and possibly thunderstorms are expected Tuesday, with
the greatest chances at KSGF and KBBG.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nelson
LONG TERM...Nelson
AVIATION...Titus