221
FXUS63 KSGF 151637 AAA
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1137 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected at times
  from late this evening into Friday. A few strong to marginally
  severe storms will be possible tonight and Thursday. Locally
  heavy rainfall and a localized flooding risk will occur
  tonight into Friday.

- Warmer conditions are expected this weekend into early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

An area of surface low pressure continues to move off to the
east as surface high pressure moves over the area early this
morning. Lows will continue to cool into the middle to the
upper 50s early this morning. There will be the potential for
some fog development early this morning. Visibilities could drop
below one mile at times and will likely vary over short
distances and with time. Any fog that can develop early this
morning will dissipate by the mid morning hours.

An upper level ridge is building east into the area early this
morning and will move over the area this afternoon. Highs will
warm into the middle 70s to the lower 80s today. A cap will be
in place across the area through this afternoon and much of the
evening hours keeping much of the day dry across the area.

An upper level trough will move east into the Plains this
evening. Instability will increase across the southern Plains
ahead of the trough. Storms will develop across the Texas
panhandle into central Oklahoma and south central Kansas this
evening. These storms should be able to produce strong enough
cold pools for a line of storms to likely develop and move east
across Oklahoma and southern Kansas this evening into tonight.
Instability will weaken to the east as the better instability
will remain closer to the upper level trough across the Plains
tonight. The instability and deep layer shear will support the
line of storms following the forward propagating Corfidi vectors
this evening across Kansas and Oklahoma which will be to the
east. Depending on exactly when and where these storms develop
they may start to push into extreme southeastern Kansas and far
southwestern Missouri late this evening then into the overnight
hours. There will be the potential for damaging straight line
winds with any bowing segments that push into extreme
southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri late this
evening and tonight. There could also be a risk for hail up to
quarters with a few of the strongest updrafts. Overall the
better severe potential will be west and southwest of the area
through tonight, with any storms likely weakening as they move
into the far western portions of the area. Still a few strong to
marginally severe storms could occur mainly west of I-49
tonight.

East of I-49 instability will be weaker but still enough for
some thunderstorms to occur. The line of storms easterly
movement will slow as they move across Missouri out of the
better instability axis to the west, and could move more south
and setup some potential for training storms tonight into
Thursday morning. Therefore, there will be a localized flooding
risk across the area tonight into Thursday. The storms will
continue to push east across the area Thursday morning and
should push east of the area during the early afternoon hours.
Not all locations will likely be affected by this activity and
the exact track of any line segments will depend on exactly
where cool pools congeal and the line of storms develop the
evening and tonight.

There should be a break in the rain after the morning activity.
Then additional isolated to scattered storms will be possible
Thursday afternoon and evening. The coverage will likely be
somewhat limited and not all locations affected. If enough
instability can develop after the morning convection a few
strong to marginally severe storms would be possible Thursday
afternoon and evening with hail up the size of quarters and
gusty winds the main risks.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

An area of surface low pressure will move northeast across
Arkansas Thursday night into Friday and northeast into the Ohio
Valley by Friday night. Moisture will wrap around the low and
showers and a few storms will develop across the area Thursday
night into Friday as the low moves to the northeast. No severe
weather is expected on Friday as the better instability will
remain south of the surface low. Some locally heavy rainfall and
a localized flooding risk will occur late Thursday night into
Friday as the showers and storms move across the region. The
rain will end from west to east Friday evening.

An upper level ridge will build over the region this weekend
bringing a warmer air mass into the area. Highs will warm into
the 80s this weekend into early next week. Mainly dry conditions
are expected across the area this weekend under the ridge.
Another system may then move across the area bringing additional
shower and storm chances to the region early next week,
however, there is still a lot of difference between the ensemble
model members on the track and timing of this system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Conditions should continue to improve into VFR for this
afternoon and evening with light and variable winds. There are a
few showers approaching JLN however confidence remains low and
will not include in the TAF at this time. Higher chances for
showers returns overnight, lasting through Thursday morning.
Highest chances for thunder are at JLN and included a group for
them. Rain chances decrease towards the end of the TAF period
so went with vicinity for at that time. Winds will begin to
switch to the southwest during the day Thursday. Flight
conditions will likely drop into MVFR Thursday morning and may
persist through the day.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Record High Temperatures:

May 20:
KSGF: 90/1964
KJLN: 92/1956
KUNO: 89/1964

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Burchfield
CLIMATE...Wise