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000
FXUS64 KSHV 210017
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
717 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue to expand in
coverage, mainly near and north of the I-20 Corridor this
afternoon but our southern half will get into the action later
tonight as an upper level trough moves out of the Texas Hill
Country and Four Corners Region and quickly moves across our
region Sunday Morning. Not seeing the stout convection we were
seeing earlier this morning but similar elevated instability still
exists across the southern and eastern half of our region so
cannot rule out some hail for the remainder of the afternoon into
the evening and overnight hours with increasing ascent with the
arrival of the upper trough but the bigger threat continues to be
locally heavy downpours. While it`s been the northern half of our
region that has experienced the heavier rainfall so far today, it
will be our southern half that will experience the heavier
downpours overnight. Good consensus with local CAMS, HRRR and HREF
output of convection across Central and Southeast Texas increasing
later this afternoon with this activity pivoting north and east
into the southern half of NE TX, quickly expanding east of the
Toledo Bend Reservoir into EC and NE LA this evening into the
overnight hours.

If there has been a trend since this time yesterday in the models,
that trend has been for the heavier rainfall to exit our region a
little sooner, as in maybe during the predawn hours vs the sunrise
to mid morning hours on Sunday so for this reason, have sped up
ending the precipitation across our region during this timeframe.
Clouds will try to clear from northwest to southeast across our
region during the day Sunday with daytime highs only reaching the
60s. Sfc riding moves ovhd Sunday Night and with clear skies we
should see good radiational cooling conditions with low
temperatures falling as low as the middle and upper 30s across our
far northern zones with lows in the 40s across the remainder of
the Four State Region.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Should begin to see a returning southerly component to the wind
on Monday across our western half and areawide by Tuesday and this
will result in a quick and impressive warming trend. WNW flow
aloft will not amount to much at least through Tue into Tue Night
with upper ridging moving across our region Wed into Thu. NBM is
more heavily weighted to the drier ECMWF vs the GFS with only
small pops across our far NW and N zones Wed into Thu. Prefer the
ECMWF handling of a weak front that tries to backdoor itself into
our region Wed into Wed Night before returning back northward Thu
into Fri. Upper ridging appears strong enough to preclude anything
significant pop wise by the end of the work week but held onto
NBM pops for Fri as a weaker ridge would suggest otherwise.
Needless to say confidence is not very strong on rain chances for
Fri and just beyond this 7-day forecast cycle but the ridge does
appear to migrate far enough east of our region for next weekend
that higher pops are likely warranted just beyond this 7-day
forecast.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

A broad area of showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue
to spread eastward across the region affecting all TAF sites,
especially early in the period. Most of the heavier precipitation
and thunderstorms should be confined south of Interstate 20 into
Deep East Texas, including KLFK, eastward into Central Louisiana.
The precip should finally beginning to diminish from northwest to
southeast and moving completely out of the area by 21/12z. Flight
conditions will be highly variable, but IFR ceilings are
generally expected to prevail initially. Ceilings should gradually
lift through the day Sunday. The clouds should also begin to
scatter from north to south. VFR flight conditions should prevail
at all TAF sites by 21/20z.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  50  67  45  72 / 100  30   0   0
MLU  49  65  42  68 / 100  50   0   0
DEQ  44  65  37  70 / 100  10   0   0
TXK  47  66  42  71 / 100  10   0   0
ELD  46  65  39  70 / 100  30   0   0
TYR  50  65  44  71 / 100  20   0   0
GGG  49  65  42  71 / 100  20   0   0
LFK  50  66  44  72 / 100  30   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...09