Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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827 FXUS64 KSHV 020531 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1231 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Most of the current forecast remains on track. However, decided to make adjustments to POPs based on current and forecasted trends. Our attention overnight will remain on a possible excessive rainfall event, generally along and south of the Interstate 20 corridor of East Texas. Current radar has a cluster of showers and thunderstorms moving into portions of Deep East Texas at this time. This cluster of storms have been slow moving and has a history of producing very heavy rainfall and likely large hail. Although I believe the large hail threat has diminish, the heavy rainfall remains a concern, as short-term progs has moderate to heavy precip over Deep East Texas overnight. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for areas of East Texas and North Louisiana along and south of I-20 through 7pm Thursday. /20/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Elevated convection has been ongoing for most of the day north of Interstate 30, mainly in Southeast Oklahoma. An isolated storm still persist in Northern McCurtain County. Despite this activity overperforming for much of today, I expect it to finally weaken and move northeast of the CWA into Arkansas late this afternoon. Our attention turns next to the upcoming heavy rain event. A shortwave trough currently in Southwest Texas is expected to help initiate a complex of strong to severe convection along a dryline in Oklahoma and Texas. This line of storms should move into Southeast Oklahoma and East Texas after midnight tonight/Thursday morning. Latest high-resolution CAMs focus the stronger storms from Deep East Texas southward to Interstate 10. A severe weather threat cannot be ruled out with this complex overnight, especially if any bowing segments develop. Damaging winds should be the primary threat. The biggest concern is the potential for heavy rain and flash flooding. As the complex arrives, the shortwave trough will also be moving across the forecast area, so large scale forcing will be maximized. PWAT values are expected to be near 2 inches, which is very near climatological maxes for the date. This increases the confidence in the heavy rain potential. The most likely location for the heaviest rainfall amounts should be in a corridor from Angelina County eastward into Western and North Central Louisiana. Redevelopment of strong convection will be possible during the afternoon within peak diurnal instability, which may lead to some enhanced rainfall rates across South Central Arkansas and Northeast Louisiana. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist into Thursday night but coverage and intensity should as the shortwave departs ending the first round of locally heavy rainfall. However, another convective complex should approach from the northwest early Friday morning as a cold front moves towards the area. This will begin the next round of intense rainfall, which will persist into the day Friday. CN && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Another complex of showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Friday morning but should be south of the I-30 corridor. The cold front is expected to stall north of I-20 by midday before moving back northward. Convection should become much more scattered and spotty in coverage, finally bringing the heavy rain threat to an end. Storm total rainfall amounts through Friday evening should be over an inch areawide and likely over 2 inches east of a line from Lufkin TX, to Shreveport, to Prescott AR. With a frontal boundary remaining northwest of the area across the Plains and a persistent west-southwest flow aloft, scattered convection will remain in the forecast through much of the weekend, especially across the northwest half of the area. Much of this will depend on how far south the front moves or if a convective complex produces a cold pool/outflow boundary that propagates into the area, which can serve as a focus convection redevelopment. The best rain chances this weekend appear to be Saturday afternoon through much of Sunday. Another shortwave trough should finally lift northeast of the area late Sunday while the surface front lifts well north of the area. A few isolated to widely scattered showers or thunderstorms will still be possible into next Monday and Tuesday. However, the big story will be the building heat as deep southerly flow and strong warm air advection commences. Daytime high temperatures are expected to climb into the into the lower to mid 90s across much of the area south of I-30 by next Tuesday and Wednesday. CN && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 For the 02/06Z TAFs, conditions continue to deteriorate, with area METARs indicating descending CIGs ahead of showers and storms entering east Texas airspace from the south and west. This area of rainfall has shown a history of being very electrified, thus carrying more TSRA than SHRA as it treks into the ArkLaTex through this forecast period. With the heaviest convection, deterioration to LIFR conditions will be possible. Southeasterly winds will continue throughout at speeds of 5 to 15 kts with higher gusts possible in the vicinity of stronger convection. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 78 70 82 69 / 90 60 70 20 MLU 79 68 79 65 / 90 60 80 20 DEQ 74 64 81 63 / 90 70 50 20 TXK 76 68 82 66 / 90 70 70 20 ELD 76 65 80 63 / 90 70 80 20 TYR 78 69 82 67 / 90 50 50 20 GGG 78 69 82 67 / 90 50 70 10 LFK 79 69 82 68 / 90 40 70 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022. OK...None. TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...26