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000
FXUS64 KSJT 232245
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
545 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Mild and breezy day on tap across west Central Texas. Morning
cloud cover has given way to mostly sunny skies with breezy
southerly winds. Temperatures will continue warming nicely into
the mid to upper 80s this afternoon. There remains the possibility
of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing
later afternoon near the dry line/triple point intersection
off the Caprock into northwest Texas. Some of these storms may
drift southeastward into the Big Country through the evening
hours. Given steep lapse rates aloft and ML CAPE values near 2000
J/K a few of these storms may become strong to severe, with large
hail greater than golf ball size the primary threat. Otherwise,
expect quiet conditiions tonight with lows in the 50s and 60s.

For Wednesday expect another mild day with temperatures warming
back into the mid to upper 80s. Another round of showers and
storms may develop by the late afternoon/evening mainly across the
Permian Basin. Given a stout capping version evident in the model
soundings will maintain a dry forecast through the afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

By Wednesday evening, the upper ridge will be moving east, with
southwest flow moving in behind it. This will increase southerly
winds and moisture near the surface in our area. The remnants of a
frontal boundary are expected to be just north of the area. With
shortwave energy moving in on increasing southwesterly flow aloft,
we could see storms develop by Wednesday evening along and north
of Interstate 20 to just west of the area that could affect the
Big Country. Some of these storms could be strong to severe with
the main hazards being large hail and damaging winds.

The concern for thunderstorms continues into Thursday night as an
approaching upper trough moves through the Four Corners region
and into the central/southern plains by Friday morning. Increasing
southwesterly flow and attendant lift associated with the trough
will interact with abundant surface/low level moisture, as well as
an approaching dryline/Pacific front. The current timing of the
combination of these ingredients is expected late Thursday night
just west of the area, with storms affecting west central Texas
during the overnight hours. The best chances for this activity
will be over the northern half of the area, but the entire CWA
will have a chance for storms. Again, any of the storms that form
Thursday night may increase to severe levels, with the main
concerns being large hail and damaging winds.

Another upper low/trough will develop by Friday night over the
southwestern U. S. Once again, moisture will be drawn northward
into our area by Friday evening. Additional shortwave energy is
expected to move in over the area as well, bringing another chance
for late night thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday morning.
As the parent low moves from the Four Corners into the central
plains area Saturday into Saturday night, a Pacific cold front
will move in which should initiate yet another round of storms
Saturday night into Sunday morning, mainly for the eastern half of
the area. As with the previous rounds, some of these storms could
be severe.

Expect generally quieter weather to start the work week next
week. Temperatures will be warm throughout the long term with
highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s, and lows mainly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Expect VFR conditions this evening across the area. Expect
widespread stratus to spread north across much of the area late
tonight and Wednesday morning with MVFR ceilings at the terminals.
Also, a few hours of IFR ceilings are possible at the
KSJT/KSOA/KBBD terminals mainly between 12Z and 16Z. Also, a few
storms may move into the Big Country this evening. Will watch the
KABI terminal for possible amendments for storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     60  84  67  85 /  20  10  10  10
San Angelo  62  89  67  86 /   0  10  10  10
Junction    64  88  67  89 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   61  83  66  84 /  10  10  10  10
Sweetwater  60  84  67  84 /  20  10  20  10
Ozona       62  86  66  83 /   0   0   0  10
Brady       64  83  67  84 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...21