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000
FXUS65 KTFX 092342
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
542 PM MDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...AVIATION SECTION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

Showers of rain and mountain snow will come to an end this evening
as a high pressure system pushes into the area. After a cooler day
on Wednesday, warmer weather returns to the area for the second
half of the week with little to no precipitation expected until a
few showers arrive across Southwestern Montana Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Points:

- Gusty winds along the Rocky Mountain Front relax this evening

- Mostly tranquil conditions expected beyond this evening, with
just a few rain showers across SW MT Friday evening and Saturday

Short Term (Through Thursday)... Radar and satellite imagery this
afternoon show a mix of sun and convective clouds across most of
the area, with more clouds across the higher terrain of
Southwestern Montana. While most of the area is dry as of early
this afternoon, a few of these more organized convective clouds
are producing some light to moderate rainfall. As these showers
continue into the afternoon and early evening, some upper level
enhancement will arrive across Southwestern Montana, which will
help these showers develop just a bit further, with the potential
for a few of them to become capable of producing lightning, along
with a minute chance for some wind gusts to around 40-50 mph and
some small hail to pea sized. While this activity should decrease
a bit after sunset, isolated showers will continue through the
overnight as a weak cold front sweeps through the area.

In the wake of the cold front that will sweep through the area
overnight, expect cooler and drier weather on Wednesday as a
surface high pressure system builds into the area. Across the
plains, temperatures will be about 5-10 degrees cooler than they
are today, with highs similar to today’s across the southwestern
mountains and valleys. Upper level ridging will begin to work its
way into the area Wednesday afternoon and into Thursday, which
will result in a notable jump in temperatures area wide on
Thursday.

Long term (Friday through next Tuesday)… Upper level ridging will
continue to be the main feature contributing to our weather on
Friday, which will keep us unseasonably warm across the area with
highs ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s across much of the lower
elevation areas of North Central and Southwestern Montana. While
this ridge will keep most of the area dry, southwesterly flow from
an upper level trough digging just offshore of the California
Coastline will begin to cause moisture to work into the area,
which will help kick off a few rain showers across some of the
terrain of Southwestern Montana. The warmth will continue across
the area through the weekend, with just a few isolated rain
showers across Southwestern Montana to interrupt the unseasonable
warmth.

Temperatures will begin to fall across the area on Monday as a
potent upper level ridge begins to approach from the northwest.
CPC clusters seem to largely (75% or so of the ensemble space)
show some version of this trough pushing into the area Tuesday and
Wednesday, which would bring some precipitation, possibly snow,
to most of the area. Ludwig

&&

.AVIATION...
542 PM MDT Tue Apr 9 2024 (10/00Z TAF Period)

A shortwave passing within a northwesterly flow aloft will maintain
isolated to scattered showers and even a few rumbles of thunder into
the overnight hours, though any thunder activity is expected to
decline after 10/04Z. Gusty westerly surface winds will shift more
northwesterly with a cold frontal passage and then will gradually
diminish in a west to east fashion between between 10/07 and 10/15Z.
Mostly VFR conditions are expected under variable, mostly mid-level,
clouds, but brief MVFR conditions can`t be ruled out during any
precipitation. Mountain obscuration and mountain wave turbulence can
also be expected through 10/15Z. - RCG

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  51  32  62 /  40  10   0   0
CTB  28  50  29  58 /  40   0   0   0
HLN  34  55  34  65 /  30  10   0   0
BZN  28  52  28  64 /  40  10   0   0
WYS  20  47  20  52 /  70   0   0   0
DLN  28  53  30  62 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  33  53  29  62 /  40   0   0   0
LWT  28  46  27  56 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls