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000
FXUS63 KTOP 200907
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
407 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and sprinkles possible this afternoon, mainly
for areas in central Kansas.

- Clouds begin to clear overnight into Sunday with parts of northern
Kansas potentially seeing Frost development.

- An active week ahead with several chances for rain and
  thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 407 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Mid-level water vapor imagery this morning shows quasi-zonal flow
across much of the central and southern Plains, trough axes draped
over the Great Lakes, and northern Rockies, and weak shortwave
energy situated over the desert southwest. Closer to home, upper
level lift from an exiting jet max has given way to scattered rain
showers across western Kansas with a subtle backdoor cold front
advancing through northern Kansas. Over the next 12 hours, mid-level
moisture paired with weak energy from the west and the backdoor
surface boundary should continue chances for scattered light rain
chances, mainly across central Kansas. Forecast soundings still show
some dry air below 700 mb, so this could eat away at most precip
that falls, but maintained slight PoPs across central Kansas to
account for light rain and sprinkles. High temperatures this
afternoon will not warm much as mostly cloudy skies and weak CAA
keep most of the area in the upper 50s.

By this evening and into Sunday morning, surface ridging builds in
from central Nebraska, increasing subsidence and drier air aloft.
Clouds clearing from northeast to southwest will take place
overnight into Sunday morning that could lead to areas in northern
Kansas seeing lows approach freezing. With ridging overhead, light
winds and sufficient surface moisture, scattered areas of frost
could develop and pose a risk to sensitive vegetation, especially in
low-lying areas. If cloud cover clears even earlier than guidance
predicts, a frost advisory or freeze warning could be needed.

The surface and 850mb ridge axis slides south and east of the area
Sunday evening as a surface low deepens in western SD. A tight
pressure gradient should develop in between the surface ridge and
low with gusty south/southwest winds expected during the afternoon
Monday. Winds and wind gusts could approach advisory criteria during
the afternoon in spots. Afternoon temperatures will reflect the well-
mixed BL with highs topping out in the 70s area-wide. Guidance still
agrees with a frontal passage across the area Monday evening and
into Tuesday morning, but with limited moisture advection ahead of
the front, instability does not appear to reach this far north.
Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder or two as showers develop along
the southeast-moving boundary, but any strong to severe weather does
not seem likely. Maintain 30-60 PoPs Monday evening and into Tuesday
morning along the front.

For the remainder of the week, high temperatures will top out in the
upper 60s and low 70s as mid-level ridging positions itself over the
central Plains. As we approach the end of the work week, rain and
storm chances will begin to increase as a stout shortwave ejects out
of the southwestern US. Vorticity maximums embedded in
southwesterly flow ahead of the upper low could bring some early
elevated rain and storm chances Thursday morning before the main
waves enters the region. Shear and instability needed for severe
weather should co-locate somewhere across the central Plains as this
system moves east, but is still too far out to pin down exact timing
and location of any severe weather threat. Long range deterministic
guidance does have decent agreement with the synoptic-scale
features, but still has a wide range of timing solutions for when
the mesoscale features pass over northeastern Kansas. There will
likely be many changes to location and timing of rain and storm
chances over the next several days, so make sure to stay updated
with the latest forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR TAFs will be expected at all terminals through the period.
Winds will remain light (10 knots or below) and sustained out of
the north as high pressure builds in from the north.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer