Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 251132
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
632 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Widespread showers will spread across the terminals today with
flight conditions deteriorating with lowering ceilings periods of
reduced visibilities. Low MVFR to IFR ceilings will prevail for
most of the forecast period. Far NW AR sites have potential for
LIFR conditions overnight. A few thunderstorms are likely across
the region today however confidence in any specific timing is low
and any thunderstorm reported at terminals will be very brief.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 334 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Rain was working its way into northeast Oklahoma early this
morning behind a cold front that stretched from Springfield, MO
to Fayetteville, AR to McAlester, OK. A few scattered
thunderstorms were popping up near the front, but the bulk of the
precipitation will be focused on this incoming swath of rain
across southeast Kansas and north-central Oklahoma. Rain chances
will increase through the morning as precipitation works its way
southeastward across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The
system lacks sufficient instability and therefore will not be
conducive to much in the way of thunderstorm activity...but a few
embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.

Overall, a cool and soggy day today behind the front. The upper level
trough will move through the region by late this evening with
rain gradually ending late tonight from west to east with trough
quickly departing into the lower Mississippi River Valley. Early
morning water vapor imagery showing the next weather system
currently moving into the Pacific Northwest. This second trough will
take a similar track and will impact the region late Thursday
night through Friday morning. The current trough will do a good
job of scouring out moisture, and as a result...Thursday night
precipitation amounts look to be rather anemic.

The weekend will bring warmer and drier weather with ridge aloft
building into the central conus. Above normal temperatures are
expected with portions of the forecast area potentially seeing
lower 80s by Monday.

A more active weather pattern in store next week with system
digging into the desert southwest and several shortwave troughs
also moving through the Northern Plains. This will set the stage
for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms from mid-week
on...and there is a good chance that severe weather may make an
appearance once again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  45  71  47 /  90  20  10  30
FSM   62  49  71  50 /  80  50  10  20
MLC   58  46  70  48 /  80  10   0  20
BVO   57  43  70  44 /  90  30  10  20
FYV   58  47  67  45 /  90  70  10  20
BYV   58  47  67  46 /  90  80  10  20
MKO   59  46  69  47 /  90  30  10  20
MIO   58  45  69  45 /  90  70  10  20
F10   58  45  70  47 /  90  20   0  20
HHW   63  45  71  50 /  60  10   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....07


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