Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 152346

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
646 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Scattered mid/high clouds will move into the area this evening in
association with initial upper jet streak. Lower clouds will spread
in from the south tonight as main disturbance shifts into the central
plains. MVFR ceilings are expected through mid morning before clearing
from west to east with dry line Friday morning. Winds will remain
gusty in most areas, especially during the day Friday.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018/

Focus of the near term will very much be on fire weather
conditions Friday afternoon, along with modest thunderstorm
chances overnight tonight. Going Fire Wx Watch has been upgraded
to Red Flag Warning, and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for
a few additional counties in northeast OK and the northwest corner
of AR.

Strong south winds continue to advect moisture northward this
afternoon with dew points in the low-mid 40s analyzed over much
of eastern OK, with mainly 30s across western AR. Have seen near
critical fire weather conditions today despite this as winds
continue to gust in the 25-35 mph range over much of eastern OK.
Overall trend this evening will be for a typical diurnal drop in
speeds with moisture continuing to surge north, thus limiting the
fire threat. As vigorous low currently just west of the 4 corners
moves east, more vigorous moisture return is likely later tonight.
Isolated/widely scattered thunderstorms should develop in warm
advection regime mainly far NE OK and NW AR, with very limited
potential for strong/severe storms as instability not overly
impressive. Any storms should be mostly east of the forecast area
after 12z Friday, when attention turns back to fire weather.

Overall model trends the last several runs have been for a strong
dry line push into eastern OK Friday afternoon as the surface low
tracks across Kansas. Some of the high-res data available beyond
24 hours continues to show an even more aggressive push of dry air
into western Arkansas and while we are not yet buying this
solution completely, do feel enough potential exists to warrant a
Fire Weather Watch to be extended into Benton/Washington counties.
Wind speeds have also trended up which seems likely given deep
mixing anticipated west of the dry line. At this time the wind
speeds do not seem to support a high-end event, but nonetheless
dangerous fire weather conditions are a given across most of
northeast/east central OK Friday afternoon.

Cold front will eventually move into the area Friday night with
lighter winds out of the north. The front will eventually stall
somewhere over Texas this weekend, with moisture beginning to
surge back north late Saturday in response to next potent wave in
westerly flow. Model trends are a bit slower and deeper now with
this system implying a better overall chance of showers and
storms by Sunday with temperatures remaining cooler over the
weekend. Severe potential remains uncertain north of the Red
River at this point as quality of moisture return is in question.

Cooler and windy conditions expected Monday in wake of this
system, with perhaps just enough wrap-around moisture to bring a
few showers to northern and eastern sections. Dry northwest flow
expected to prevail mid-week with temperatures close to normal.



OK...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for OKZ063-068-069-072-074-075.

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Friday for OKZ054>062-

AR...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for ARZ001-010.



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