362
FXUS64 KTSA 011055
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
555 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Showers and thunderstorms continue to push south into southeast
Oklahoma early this morning, with scattered activity continuing to
fester across parts of northeast Oklahoma. Convection should wane
as the morning wears on, which will lead to a mainly dry
afternoon, with temperatures warming into the upper 70s to mid
80s. The flood watch for parts of northeast Oklahoma will be
cancelled with this forecast issuance.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Convection which develops to our west this afternoon and evening
is likely to organize into one or more convective clusters
overnight and once again translate to the east and southeast. The
heaviest precipitation is likely to remain well to our south
overnight, but some shower and thunderstorm activity is expected
in our area, with the highest chances in southeast Oklahoma.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
Thursday into Thursday evening as a cold front pushes into and
across our area, but CAMs suggest that the NBM categorical pops
are too high, so will once again lower them somewhat.

Friday will see a relative lull in convection before shower and
storm chances increase again over the weekend as another frontal
boundary moves across the area. A stronger storm system may move
out into the plains early next week bringing a chance for more
vigorous convection early next week, but the details remain
unclear on this.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish for
most terminals by 15Z this morning. Until that time, CIGs will
mostly be in the 5-8 kft range, after which skies will become
partly to mostly clear for the afternoon hours. Winds will become
southeasterly with a few gusts of 15-25 kts for most terminals.

Overnight low level wind shear will develop near or after
midnight. Another round of storms may move into the area from the
west during the late evening or overnight hours, but details are
unclear. The most likely area to see rain and thunder will be
eastern OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  66  78  59 /  50  40  70  60
FSM   85  65  78  64 /  40  20  60  70
MLC   83  66  78  62 /  50  60  60  70
BVO   82  63  77  55 /  40  40  70  60
FYV   81  63  75  59 /  40  20  70  70
BYV   81  65  77  60 /  30  10  70  70
MKO   82  64  76  60 /  50  40  70  70
MIO   79  64  75  58 /  40  20  70  70
F10   82  64  76  61 /  50  60  70  70
HHW   83  65  76  64 /  30  60  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...06