Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KTSA 242342
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
642 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

The main concern through the rest of today and into tonight is the
potential for severe weather, with the limiting factor for such
being instability - or lack thereof. Showers and thunderstorms
have developed across western Oklahoma within a moisture axis,
well ahead of the dryline, which stretches through the panhandles
southward into the Big Bend region of Texas early this afternoon.
A fairly substantial east/west gradient in moisture exists across
Oklahoma, with dew points across the eastern half of the state
still in the 30s and 40s. 3-hour trends in the Oklahoma Mesonet
data do indicate a notable increase in the dew points areawide,
though, which is forecast to continue through the rest of the
afternoon and into the overnight, especially once the low level
jet strengthens again tonight. CAMs have been fairly consistent
today in bringing storms to the west into portions of northeast
Oklahoma to the west of Highway 75 by 9 or 10 pm, ahead of when
modest surface-based instability is forecast to move into the same
region. Wind fields are more than supportive of tornadoes this
evening, as evidenced by looping forecast hodographs, but it
appears that the shear and instability do not coexist until after
the primary thunderstorm potential has shifted east. Elevated
instability this evening in northeast Oklahoma is sufficient for
marginally severe hail and with the strong wind fields in place,
damaging wind from 60 to 65 mph as well. Overall, however, expect
a decreasing trend in the evening storms the farther east they
go. The summary for all the above is simply that elevated strong
to severe storms remain the most likely scenario, with any kind of
tornado threat largely hinging on storms developing/moving into
the area later than currently expected.

More widespread shower and thunderstorm development remains
expected across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas around
midnight and into the early morning hours on Monday, as the upper
level jet moves through that part of the region. A continued low
end severe weather threat will exist with this activity as well,
given modest elevated instability, but with precipitable water
values forecast to approach +2SD above normal, the locally heavy
rain potential should be the greater threat.

POPs overnight reflect a mix of NBM and the short-term consensus
blend, which served to decrease POPs some from the NBM
initialization during the evening and fine-tune the timing and
location of the heavier rain axis late tonight.

The current Wind Advisory will be left as is, but expect that the
mid shift, especially, may be able to trim western parts of the
advisory tonight. Occasional gusts above 40 mph are beginning to
be observed this far east early this afternoon, with Tulsa
reporting a peak gust of 52 mph just this past hour.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Widespread showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing Monday
morning primarily across southeast Oklahoma and into western
Arkansas, with a continued heavy rain threat focused in Arkansas.
Drier air will move in from the west during the day, with an axis
of above normal temperatures likely in parts of eastern Oklahoma,
aided by low level westerly winds. Additional showers and storms
may develop in the afternoon and evening across mainly northeast
Oklahoma into far northwest Arkansas as the strong cold front
pushes through. There could be a window for a strong to marginally
severe thunderstorm during this time frame given the cold upper
level temperatures ushered in by the upper low.

Behind the cold front, freezing temperatures remain likely across
parts of northeast Oklahoma Monday night, but wind speeds should
stay high enough to limit how much of the area sees a freeze. A
more widespread freeze, including hard freeze potential, should
occur Tuesday night, as wind speeds drop off with surface high
pressure atop the area. A few locations may again see a freeze
Wednesday night. Reminder that we are in our spring growing season
and Freeze headlines will be needed during this time frame.

Much warmer conditions will arrive late in the week and into the
weekend, with above normal temperatures likely. The next chance of
rain could come as early as Sunday, as another cold front is set
to approach the region. Timing of this feature has been
inconsistent so stuck with the NBM POP offering for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Ongoing VFR conditions with areas of light showers will persist
into early evening. Focus will on storms spreading into eastern OK
later this evening with a downtrend in coverage expected with this
initial round of storms. Ceilings will steadily lower overnight
while storms expand in coverage primarily from SE OK through
western AR overnight and slowly move eastward through Monday
morning. Flight conditions will improve from west to east through
the day with eventual VFR likely area wide. A broad region of
afternoon cumulus may yield MVFR ceilings at times though coverage
is uncertain. Also, isolated late day showers and storms could
also develop but any coverage currently appears to be rather low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  71  33  53 /  60  30  10   0
FSM   55  67  35  55 /  90  90  20   0
MLC   55  70  34  55 /  90  40  10   0
BVO   51  71  31  52 /  60  20  10   0
FYV   50  64  31  52 / 100 100  20   0
BYV   51  61  33  48 /  80 100  20   0
MKO   54  67  34  52 /  80  50  10   0
MIO   53  64  33  48 /  60  50  30   0
F10   54  69  33  52 /  70  30  10   0
HHW   53  67  36  56 /  90  70   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CDT Monday for OKZ057-058-062-063-
     067>076.

     Wind Advisory until 6 AM CDT Monday for OKZ054>056-059>061-
     064>066.

AR...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...07


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.