Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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204
FXUS64 KTSA 211149
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
649 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Widely scattered rain showers, and occasional isolated thunder,
will gradually fill in through the morning hours. Heavier
rainfall remains west across central Oklahoma and up into
southeast Kansas. The upper level system will work east today and
push the heavier rain swath into eastern Oklahoma by this
afternoon. Easterly winds will back to more northeasterly then
northerly by late tonight. As the upper low tracks into eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas...we could see an increase in
thunder activity associated with the surface low. Light to
moderate rain and rain showers are expected to continue through
the period with isolated thunder chances.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 354 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Broad region of warm advection ahead of approaching upper low has
supported scattered high based convection with isolated
thunderstorms despite meager instability. Lift will continue to
increase across the region as a shortwave trough analyzed over far
west TX at 00z rotates northeastward. This will coincide with
improving moisture profiles to yield widespread precip today into
tonight. Forecast profiles indicate very little instability over
much of the forecast area, however a few thunderstorms remain
possible within the stronger forcing regime. Far SE OK will be
nearer the zone of warm sector instability which should favor an
uptick in thunderstorm coverage and allow for a few stronger
updrafts. The heaviest precip will begin to focus more east of
the region later Saturday night. Widespread 1-2 inch rainfall
totals are forecast through tonight.

Scattered precip will linger into Sunday on the northern periphery
of the passing upper low. Temps will remain seasonably cool both
Saturday and Sunday. Warming trend commences Monday and continues
into Tuesday with rain chances increasing Tuesday night through
Wednesday as the next wave quickly passes through the region.
The prevailing flow pattern is expected to be ridging west /
troughing east which maintains a northwesterly flow through the
Plains. Another fast moving wave within this prevailing flow
increases precip chances toward the end of the work week.
Temperatures at or slightly below normal are likely through the
upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  48  62  49 / 100  70  40  10
FSM   69  53  66  53 /  80  90  50  10
MLC   61  49  64  50 / 100  70  20  10
BVO   55  47  62  48 / 100  70  40  10
FYV   65  49  59  49 /  80  90  70  10
BYV   65  49  58  49 /  50  90  90  10
MKO   61  50  63  50 / 100  80  40  10
MIO   62  49  58  48 /  90  80  70  10
F10   58  47  62  50 / 100  60  20  10
HHW   65  52  65  51 / 100  90  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


LONG TERM....07
AVIATION.....11



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