National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KTSA 200525
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1225 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 922 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A few light showers continue to drift eastward, generally near
the I-40 corridor, in general vicinity of 850mb frontal zone.
Increasing lift later tonight will result in expansion of showers
and isolated to scattered thunderstorms, with I-40 south remaining
the favored area. Only a few minor changes to the configuration
of POPs were made this evening, with the forecast remaining
generally on track.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to expand in coverage
across the far southern portion of the forecast area tomorrow with
lower confidence in northward advance of any light rain. Guidance
trends have consistently been southward with the precip footprint
as the mid level passes. Areas north of Interstate 40 are
trending drier and may well have no rainfall through the weekend.
Widespread cloud cover and influence from any rains will keep high
temps well below normal on Saturday.

Rains end Saturday night with light winds, dry and mild weather
on Sunday as sfc high pressure builds across the region. Winds
increase on Monday with a warming trend continuing into Tuesday
ahead of the next cold front. Currently the frontal passage
appears mostly dry, however shower and storm chances trend upward
in its wake as the flow aloft becomes more unsettled from mid to
late next week. It appears likely that severe weather potential
will increase by late next week as both instability and wind
profiles improve.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Mid/high clouds will continue overnight as upper disturbance approaches
from the west. Areas of rain in association with feature will likely
develop across southeast Oklahoma late tonight into Saturday morning
spreading into west-central Arkansas during the day. MVFR conditions
will be likely in the heavier showers, including an isolated thunderstorm
or two in the KMLC area. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected through
the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  44  66  42 /  30  20   0   0
FSM   63  47  68  43 /  50  30   0   0
MLC   59  46  66  41 /  70  50   0   0
BVO   64  41  66  37 /  20  10   0   0
FYV   66  41  65  38 /  30  20   0   0
BYV   64  42  63  39 /  20  20   0   0
MKO   64  46  64  40 /  40  20   0   0
MIO   62  40  63  38 /  20  10   0   0
F10   62  46  64  41 /  50  30   0   0
HHW   56  47  64  41 /  90  70   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...12