Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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836
FXUS64 KTSA 232336
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
636 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered showers and storms will remain possible over the next
couple of hours and should then begin to weaken with the loss of
daytime heating. Overnight...scattered to broken high clouds and
light winds are forecast over the CWA. During the day
Thursday...scattered to broken mid and high clouds will again be
possible along with scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
CWA. Will carry VCTS for the greater potential during the
afternoon hours. Periods of MVFR conditions could be possible
within the convection both ongoing and again Thursday.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 247 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this
Afternoon across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas in
the deep moisture plume in association with a weak mid-level
shortwave. Some of the storms have become strong this afternoon
with wind gusts approaching 50 mph. Locally heavy rainfall
has also been a concern due to the slow movement of the storms
with some locations recording around 1 inch of rain in less than
an hours time. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to persist into the early evening hours before diminishing.

Will once again see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the area on Thursday as the same scenario plays out across
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

On Friday, we will see the upper level flow become more northwesterly
with a weak shortwave bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms to the
area Friday into Friday evening.

An upper level ridge builds over the region during the Holiday weekend
with limited chances of showers and thunderstorms. As of now it looks
like any system moving into the Southern United States from the Gulf of
Mexico will mainly influence areas of east of the Tulsa CWA.

Unseasonably warm conditions are expected to continue into next week
with Sunday expected to be the hottest day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  88  69  91 /  20  40  10  20
FSM   68  88  68  92 /  30  50  20  20
MLC   66  87  68  91 /  30  40  10  10
BVO   66  87  67  91 /  20  30  10  30
FYV   66  84  66  87 /  30  50  20  30
BYV   65  84  64  87 /  30  50  20  40
MKO   67  86  68  90 /  30  50  10  20
MIO   66  85  67  89 /  30  50  10  30
F10   66  87  67  91 /  30  50  10  10
HHW   68  89  69  92 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....20



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