Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 211516
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1016 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Visibilities have improved above 5SM in all areas, though low
stratus remains stubborn to erode from far northwest AR back into
southeast OK. Aside from that, isolated thunderstorms possible
this afternoon near weakening frontal zone across far eastern and
southern sections of the forecast area. Updated forecast was sent
earlier, primarily to remove morning fog wording.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 544 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018/

DISCUSSION...

The discussion for the 12Z TAF forecast can be found below.

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Fog and low cigs will be the main concern for aviation ops this
forecast period. Areas of sub-IFR cigs/vsbys will persist thru
early to mid morning before burning off. VFR conditions will
prevail until tonight, when model data indicates more IFR or sub-
IFR fog development, especially over NW AR. All TAF sites will
have some mention of fog, with the worst conditions expected in NW
AR.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 334 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018/

DISCUSSION...
It is much quieter tonight than last night at this time, with a
few thunderstorms now east of the area in central AR. Areas of
stratus or fog have formed due to the trapped boundary layer
moisture and light flow. Clouds should scatter out by mid morning
across eastern OK, but may linger til mid day across western AR.

Boundary is now south and east, so there is little forcing for
showers or storms today. However, will hang on to the low pops in
far southeast OK, where there could be some afternoon convection
in the favorable terrain, mainly across far southeast OK into
west central AR.

Jet energy will round the base of the upper trough in the west
through Tuesday with low chances for afternoon storms from
McAlester to Fort Smith and areas south on Tuesday. The dryline
becomes better established by Wednesday afternoon with a lee
trough strengthening the southerly flow over Oklahoma. Storms
should develop over the southern high Plains on Wednesday
afternoon, as a weak shortwave trough embedded within the
southwest flow, moves east. Increasing isentropic lift may bring
isolated showers and thunderstorms across eastern Oklahoma by Wed
afternoon. The stronger storms should remain well west across the
TX panhandle and western OK.

The rest of the week looks hot with building ridge across the mid
portion of the country. It still looks like showers and
thunderstorms are possible for the start of the long holiday
weekend, as a cold front moves through the region on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  64  88  68 /  10   0  10   0
FSM   85  65  88  68 /  10   0  20   0
MLC   84  63  87  66 /  10   0  20   0
BVO   82  60  87  63 /  10   0  10   0
FYV   82  63  85  62 /  10   0  20   0
BYV   82  61  86  63 /  10   0  20   0
MKO   83  64  87  65 /  10   0  10   0
MIO   81  62  86  65 /  10   0  10   0
F10   83  63  87  66 /  10   0  10   0
HHW   84  66  87  68 /  20   0  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....10



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