Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 260140
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
840 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Precipitation associated with compact upper wave continues to
slowly decrease from the west with more widespread rain now
having shifted into northwest AR. Based on radar trends have
adjusted POPS for the evening and also lowered them some after
06z. Rest of the forecast trending well as clouds will likely be
slow to clear overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 643 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018/

DISCUSSION...

The discussion for the 00Z TAF forecast can be found below.

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
An upper level low pressure system spinning overhead, combined
with a cool and fairly moist boundary layer, will continue to
yield poor aviation conditions thru the first half of the
forecast. IFR or blo will be prevalent tonight, with improvement
to MVFR and eventually VFR expected on Thursday as the low moves
away.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 317 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Areas of light rain continue across eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas this afternoon in association with strong upper wave.
Main precipitation will begin to shift east of the region by early
evening, however wrap around light precip will remain possible
across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas tonight on
backside of departing system.

Secondary upper wave will quickly move out of the central plains on
Thursday with limited rain chances into Thursday night with weak frontal
boundary. Overall amounts will remain light/isolated given the limited
low level moisture available. Mostly sunny conditions expected into
the day Friday as surface high pressure builds over the region with
highs back into the upper 60s to lower 70s. A warm/dry weekend on tap
as upper ridge builds over the Southern Plains. Temperatures will remain
above normal into the early part of next week as southerly winds
increase.

Broad upper trough will begin to amplify over the desert southwest Tuesday
into Wednesday of next week with increasing/deeper gulf moisture spreading
into the area from the south. Timing differences remain in the operational
models with initial short wave ahead of main upper trough which is to
be expected this far into the extended. Still some potential for severe
weather/heavy rainfall around mid week, however this will be dependent
on eventual timing of the smaller scale features and overall
evolution of main upper trough.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  70  46  71 /  20   0  20   0
FSM   49  71  50  72 /  30  10  20   0
MLC   46  70  48  71 /   0   0  20   0
BVO   41  70  42  71 /  20   0  20   0
FYV   45  66  43  68 /  50  10  20   0
BYV   47  66  46  69 /  70  10  20   0
MKO   44  68  46  70 /  20  10  20   0
MIO   45  69  45  69 /  60  10  20   0
F10   43  68  47  70 /   0   0  20   0
HHW   44  70  50  71 /  10   0  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14


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