Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 251124
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
624 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Widespread convection ongoing west of NE OK terminals and there is
potential for these showers/storms to persist through the morning
hours with a slow eastward progression. Additional development
will be possible later today along any remnant outflow boundaries
though timing and impact at any specific terminal is difficult.
Storm chances will diminish late evening and patchy fog may again
develop especially should any terminal receive meaningful
rainfall.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 417 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Main forecast concern in the near term focused on thunderstorm
chances, as complex of storms continues to move southeast across
north central OK. CAM solutions have been struggling to get a
handle on current situation, though the general idea is for
development to be focused more in eastern OK during the early part
of the day. In addition to above mentioned complex, a less
organized convective cluster continues to move toward southeast KS
and will likely impact parts of northeast OK this morning. Final
POP forecast for first period will be determined with a final look
at radar trends, with highest POPs through 18z across portions of
eastern OK.

Additional storms possible this afternoon along any boundaries
left from morning storms, though the location of highest
probability will be contingent on how things evolve through the
morning. Forecast instability supportive of marginal severe risk.

Weak northwest flow continues through tonight with additional
storms possible tonight into early Saturday. Mid level heights
begin to build over the weekend with storms chances becoming more
closely tied to terrain influences. Large expanding ridge of high
pressure, more reminiscent of August that late May, will be the
main feature next week, with temperatures responding accordingly
and record heat possible by the latter half of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  71  93  72 /  30  30  10  10
FSM   91  71  93  72 /  30  30  20  10
MLC   90  72  93  71 /  50  30  20  10
BVO   89  67  93  66 /  30  30  10   0
FYV   87  68  89  66 /  30  30  20   0
BYV   87  68  90  67 /  30  30  20  10
MKO   89  70  92  71 /  40  30  20  10
MIO   88  69  92  69 /  30  30  10   0
F10   89  70  91  70 /  50  40  10  10
HHW   91  71  92  72 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....07


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