Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 231148
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
648 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR and MVFR conditions will begin to improve later this morning
and early afternoon with the departure of the upper level low. The
northwest Arkansas terminals may still see a few light rain
showers rotate in from the north but this should end by 14-15Z.
Cloud deck should rise and become more scattered in nature by
18-21Z and clearing skies by 00-03Z for most terminals. With clear
skies expected overnight tonight and recent rainfall...may see
some fog develop at several terminals overnight. Have left out
mention of fog and reduced vsby for now and will let later shifts
evaluate.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 338 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Low cloudiness and patchy drizzle remain in place on the periphery
of the slow moving upper low. A continued slow eastward motion of
the low center today should allow for enough sunshine to allow
for a noticeable warm up in temps compared to recent days. Warm up
will continue on Tuesday ahead of the next cold front.

Trends in the data continue to support a rather strong wave
dropping southeastward across the region on Wednesday. Any
preceding warm sector thunderstorm activity is expected to remain
well southwest of the region, however widespread rains and
isolated thunderstorms are expected in the post frontal regime
beginning late Tuesday night and continuing through the day
Wednesday. Extensive cloud cover and ongoing precip will make for
an appreciable cool down on Wednesday.

Another wave will quickly follow passing late Thursday to early
Friday and bringing another chance of precip. Thereafter ridging
aloft expands across the Plains allowing for a dry and warm
weekend with high temps at or above normal likely. Current data
suggests the pattern will trend decidedly more active next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  47  76  50 /   0   0   0  50
FSM   70  50  77  53 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   71  48  76  51 /   0   0   0  30
BVO   71  44  76  48 /   0   0   0  60
FYV   66  47  73  48 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   64  47  73  48 /  10  10   0  10
MKO   69  48  75  51 /   0   0   0  30
MIO   69  46  74  49 /  10   0   0  30
F10   70  48  75  50 /   0   0   0  40
HHW   71  51  78  54 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


LONG TERM....07
AVIATION.....11



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