Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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256
FXUS64 KTSA 201136
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
636 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...

The discussion for the 12Z TAF forecast can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Given uncertainties regarding convective evolution today, I have
elected to keep TAFs simple. Tempo thunder groups were maintained
at KROG/KXNA with storms nearby on outflow from the MCS in SW MO.
The HRRR shows redevelopment of storms later today in association
with the MCV currently in western OK as it moves northeast in our
direction. Elected to do VCTS mention at most sites except KMLC,
where the airmass has been less worked over, and the HRRR is more
aggressive. Activity should die off after 00z, thus remove all
thunder mention at this time from the TAFs. The guidance does hint
at fog development tonight, but have elected to punt this to the
next shift given low confidence at this point.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 348 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Large MCS is ongoing across much of Oklahoma and portions of west
Texas. This system has left a large outflow boundary extending
from Midland to south of Abilene. Multiple outflow boundaries
exist across eastern Oklahoma as well, as storms continue to form
within the low level jet axis. Wind gusts from the OK mesonet
have been sub-severe so far overnight, generally in the 40 to 50
mph range. The highest chance for storms will be this morning
across eastern Oklahoma, with diminishing chances by tonight.

Monday will feel more comfortable as some drier air works into the
region behind the cold front. Southwest flow aloft will persist
into at least mid week, which will bring low end chances for
showers and storms each day. Overall severe potential looks low
for the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  63  84  66 /  60  20  20  10
FSM   85  67  87  68 /  40  30  30  10
MLC   79  62  86  65 /  70  40  30  10
BVO   76  58  83  63 /  60  20  10  10
FYV   80  62  82  62 /  40  30  30  10
BYV   81  64  82  63 /  40  20  30  10
MKO   77  63  84  66 /  60  40  30  10
MIO   79  62  83  64 /  60  20  20  10
F10   79  63  83  66 /  70  20  20  10
HHW   84  67  87  67 /  50  40  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....30



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