000
FXUS64 KTSA 221151
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
651 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are currently rotating around a
low pressure system across far northwest Arkansas. The low
pressure center will move towards southeast Arkansas today. On the
backside of this system...terminals across eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas will still see scattered showers and maybe an
isolated thunderstorm through much of the day. Cigs will be tricky
and could see several terminals bounce between VFR/MVFR/IFR/LIFR
before improving later today. Rain showers may allow vsby to drop
occasionally to MVFR/IFR, but overall, VFR vsby is expected
through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 329 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Bulk of overnight precip has consolidated across far E OK / NW AR
in proximity to vort max rotating around the closed mid level low,
which will slowly track into SW AR by Sunday evening. Additional
showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm are expected to
develop on the N-NW periphery of the upper low through the day.
Temps today will continue well below normal.

Precip coverage dwindles this evening as the storm system moves
east of the region. Clearing skies on Monday allows for a
noticeable warm up which continues into Tuesday ahead of the next
cold front. Precip chances will increase Tuesday night into Wed in
a largely post frontal manner with data remaining consistent that
the highest precip amounts will focus toward southern OK.

Brief cool down Wednesday before sfc pattern quickly responds to
the next wave scheduled to pass Thurs night - Friday. Uncertainty
increases with both the timing of this feature and associated
precip chances with the ECMWF wetter / GFS drier. Once this wave
passes a more prolonged period of warmer temps is likely to
develop as ridging aloft prevails for next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  48  71  48 /  30  10   0   0
FSM   63  52  68  50 /  50  20  10  10
MLC   59  50  69  49 /  20  10  10   0
BVO   59  48  71  46 /  40  10   0   0
FYV   59  50  62  47 /  80  30  10  10
BYV   59  50  62  47 /  90  50  10  10
MKO   59  49  67  48 /  40  10  10   0
MIO   59  51  66  48 /  70  20  10  10
F10   59  48  69  49 /  20  10  10   0
HHW   62  52  71  51 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


LONG TERM....07
AVIATION.....11