Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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201 FXUS64 KTSA 291710 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1210 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1012 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Visibilities continue to improve this morning across the area so the Dense Fog Advisory was allowed to expire at 15z. Cloud cover in the areas that saw fog earlier will also continue to give way to a mostly sunny/sunny sky by early afternoon so going afternoon max temperatures look good. Main adjustments to this update were to tweak sky cover through 18z and remove fog headlines from the zone text. Rest of first period elements look good as well. Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM already sent. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Quiet weather will continue for much of Tuesday, with temperatures surging into the low to mid 80s as southerly flow resumes. By Tuesday evening a boundary will sag into northeast OK, with at least a low end chance of a few showers and thunderstorms north of this boundary. Heading into Wednesday this boundary will mostly wash out, but better forcing will arrive as a shortwave ejects from a trough in the west into the area. This will keep the chance of showers and thunderstorms going, with 15-30 PoPs across the area. Model soundings show good instability and sufficient wind shear to support a low end severe threat, but the highest threat will likely remain west of the area. The western trough will move into the northern Plains Thursday, with a sharp shortwave rounding the base of this trough. This will greatly increase wind shear and lift Thursday, but will also send a strong cold front into the region. Much more widespread precipitation is expected to develop with scattered to numerous thunderstorms. This is most likely the best chance for severe weather during the next week. Some lingering showers could continue into Friday before we get another break from the action. Cooler and drier weather will settle into the area by later Friday and Saturday. Heading into Sunday and Monday ensemble guidance indicates another weather system could impact the area, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Initial MVFR cigs at KMLC and KFYV will scatter out within the first hour or two of the valid period. Thereafter at those sites and at the remaining sites through the entire period, VFR TAF elements will prevail && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 57 85 64 85 / 0 10 20 30 FSM 58 87 63 87 / 0 0 0 20 MLC 59 85 66 84 / 0 0 10 20 BVO 53 85 61 85 / 0 10 30 40 FYV 54 83 61 85 / 0 0 10 20 BYV 53 83 60 85 / 0 0 10 20 MKO 56 83 63 84 / 0 0 10 20 MIO 54 83 62 85 / 0 0 20 30 F10 57 83 64 83 / 0 0 10 20 HHW 58 84 64 82 / 0 0 0 30 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...23